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[转贴] 通胀来了怎么办(from SeekingAlpha)

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发表于 2013-3-14 12:42 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


版权问题,只贴结论。http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... tionary-environment

Conclusion

Here is a summary of my strategy for investing in an inflationary environment.

A: Investors must outperform the rate of inflation because their nominal gains are taxed as if they are real gains.

B: Given the way that capital gains are taxed investors will benefit from holding their investments for long periods of time.

C: Commodities are the best inflation hedges, and commodities that have a high value to weight ratio should benefit the most.

D: Commodity-stocks are also good inflation hedges if they are chosen wisely. Investors in commodity stocks need to remember that these companies experience inflation both as a tailwind and as a headwind.

E: Bonds are a lousy inflation hedge, and inflation protected bonds cannot protect investors from inflation because the nominal gains that are meant to hedge investors against inflation are taxed.

F: Foreign currencies are lousy inflation hedges, although some are better than others. Currencies in countries that produce commodities should fare slightly better but they are poor substitutes for commodities themselves.

G: Non-commodity stocks are not good inflation hedges in general, yet there may be companies that benefit from prices rising, and there may be others that have their own secular tailwinds that make them solid investments regardless of inflation.
发表于 2013-3-14 01:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
US Dollar is strong. Will commodity still do good?
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-3-14 01:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
randomwalker 发表于 2013-3-14 01:00 PM
US Dollar is strong. Will commodity still do good?

不是说现在,是说如果有通胀。。。
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发表于 2013-3-14 01:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
中国印钱,工资涨,灰色收入增加。美国印钱都不知道去哪了,工资一分不见涨。。。。食品涨的很厉害,葱都80cents 了。。。

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发表于 2013-3-14 01:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
有通胀就要停止印钱, 被逼加息了! 现在通胀还在可控范围之内, 但东西都贵了许多, 真不知数据有没有水份!

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-3-14 01:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
randomwalker 发表于 2013-3-14 01:51 PM
中国印钱,工资涨,灰色收入增加。美国印钱都不知道去哪了,工资一分不见涨。。。。食品涨的很厉害,葱都80 ...

美联储说了:能源和食品不计入inflation。。。反正我是信了。。。

美国印的钱都流进资本市场了。股市涨,债市虽然在跌,可是每个月还是有几个B的钱流进去,反正钱放着就贬值,总的买点什么。现在唯一净流出的就是money market fund。
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 楼主| 发表于 2013-3-14 02:00 PM | 显示全部楼层
chinesebuffet 发表于 2013-3-14 01:54 PM
有通胀就要停止印钱, 被逼加息了! 现在通胀还在可控范围之内, 但东西都贵了许多, 真不知数据有没有水份 ...

数据是木有水分的,因为不计入能源和成本。。。
美联储说的,反正我是信了。。。
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发表于 2013-3-14 02:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
chinesebuffet 发表于 2013-3-14 01:54 PM
有通胀就要停止印钱, 被逼加息了! 现在通胀还在可控范围之内, 但东西都贵了许多, 真不知数据有没有水份 ...

数据水分一定是有的,美国印的钱不比中国少,可那去了呢?每年涨的工资还不够税涨的。。。
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发表于 2013-3-14 02:02 PM | 显示全部楼层
老大信我也信了! 反正计算方法由他们订!

点评

:p  发表于 2013-3-14 02:52 PM
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发表于 2013-3-14 04:27 PM | 显示全部楼层
randomwalker 发表于 2013-3-14 01:01 PM
数据水分一定是有的,美国印的钱不比中国少,可那去了呢?每年涨的工资还不够税涨的。。。

你大概没看我的报告,这不是真的。

美联储印钱还要告诉一声,中国印钱是地道的MHP
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发表于 2013-3-14 04:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
Diffusion 发表于 2013-3-14 12:59 PM
美联储说了:能源和食品不计入inflation。。。反正我是信了。。。

美国印的钱都流进资本市场 ...

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