Forex/Futures ST for Week 3/4-3/8

九天

MFTHT 发表于 2013-3-6 06:14 PM
九天兄，我装了一个MetaTrader PRO, 但只看到有FX, 找不到ES. 记得你说过有交易商允许0.1手交易的，用这个 ...

对不起，没有用MetaTrader PRO，我不清楚。
但www.xtb.comd的MT4 可以交易0.1手CBOE SP500 Futured Based CFD。
没有掉期问题的。

MFTHT

九天 发表于 2013-3-6 08:03 PM
对不起，没有用MetaTrader PRO，我不清楚。
但www.xtb.comd的MT4 可以交易0.1手CBOE SP500 Futured Base ...

多谢。

greenback

SP wants to break down from the top ...

greenback

This week, the forex correlations with stocks are very strange ...
Now rising EURO is bad for SPX ...

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2013-3-7 12:49 AM
SP wants to break down from the top ...

该有小回调了，回调应该是买入的机会，（1518应该能撑住）。SP接近历史高点，现在大家都盯着1586呢，至少我觉得怪怪的。到了这里，在有较大点的回调之前，会不会摸一下1586？如果我有大钱等放空，我要放在哪里？这一波要涨到哪里？绿老大觉得下一个Fibo大目标在哪？

greenback

There is a bottom-forming pattern in AUD, time to get out if it breaks out for ST plays ...

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2013-3-6 08:12 PM
该有小回调了，回调应该是买入的机会，（1518应该能撑住）。SP接近历史高点，现在大家都盯着1586呢，至少 ...

1530 seems to be a first stop, 1518 would be even better ... I'm waiting ...

As for the new high, 1586 seems to be ~100% MM out of the immediate past bottom.

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2013-3-7 12:50 AM
This week, the forex correlations with stocks are very strange ...
Now rising EURO is bad for SPX . ...

这几周eur和ES的相关性不强：EUR已经连跌了4周了。

greenback

New highs again in stocks! JPY made new low! Bond finally crashed ...

greenback

Tomorrow is DOA's inventory data day, traders are shying away from CT's high ... let's wait for SW's reversal to see whether it's still a short ...

greenback

GBP remains as a good short ...

greenback

Since yesterday evening, USD/JPY starts to follow EUR/USD; before that, it was following USD ... interesting ...

greenback

So it's always good idea to have a position in a trending market to keep your sanity ... since we never know when the pullback will come.

Of course, we always keep portion of the power dry for ST. For me, it's half/half.

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2013-3-7 03:38 PM
So it's always good idea to have a position in a trending market to keep your sanity ... since we ne ...

今天很boring. 唠点儿闲嗑儿。最近脑子有点儿乱，有些累了。看的商品太多，跟不上。感觉还是做ES比较有底气，因为我做过很多遍过去26年4小时图的复盘。商品的期货，根据4小时图来做依然过于动荡。根据商品期货周线图做ETF可能是我以后的方向。对于ES, 做SPY的期权也有很大的优点，尤其是回测补仓时成本很低。

研究股市快两年了，最近感觉遇到一个坎儿，过了这个坎儿应该能上一个台阶了。一直都在试，试图找到适合自己的最佳策略，也发现了一些策略可行，但还需要很长时间验证，尤其是风险控制。目前脑子很乱，也许应该休息一段时间梳理一下。

绿老大研究股市几年了？

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2013-3-7 12:45 PM
今天很boring. 唠点儿闲嗑儿。最近脑子有点儿乱，有些累了。看的商品太多，跟不上。感觉还是做ES比较有底 ...

I've been doing this since 2008 ... and I've learned a lot from Cobra and HT

Indeed, ES is well behaved as far as TA is concerned, but forex can be even more behaving, good for ST.

Commodities are good if they have a strong trend, but the problem is that it's impossible to know beforehand it will start a new trend. Also trendy assets are rare ... so we have to prepare with loss many times to find a long ride.

So I think a better strategy is not to guess a new trend unless we are willing to waste precious capitals: someone was saying 20% drawdown is often necessary to find a trend. Following a well established trend is easier. There is a saying that once a trend is established, it is very hard to break because there is some strong FA reason for it to be strong.

That's why I'm staying with 6J and NKD ... the FA why they are trendy is also easy to understand and will be there for months to come, at least in this year.

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2013-3-7 06:01 PM
I've been doing this since 2008 ... and I've learned a lot from Cobra and HT

Indeed, ES is well ...

其实我是从2009年3月16日开的第一个账户，第一年稀里糊涂见姑妈一次（小号外婆），第二年休息一年，从2010年开始研究，你可以看到2010年5月份开始在HT蹲守，呵呵。

绿老大天分高，2008年开始就已经成为稳定挣钱的高手，希望再过两年我也可以。准备下一单从SPY开始动真钱了。丑媳妇总是要见公婆的，呵呵。

趋势，趋势，趋势。这是一再看到的经验心得，在绿老大这里实际看到了操作，多谢绿大，学习了。趋势为本，趋势为纲，俺以后就跟趋势扛上了。

周线图的趋势最稳，我以后也要更多注意周线。

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2013-3-7 01:38 PM
其实我是从2009年3月16日开的第一个账户，第一年稀里糊涂见姑妈一次（小号外婆），第二年休息一年，从201 ...

Forex and futures are still new to me ... I have been trading ETF since 2008. I just started trading futures at the beginning of 2012. So I'm still exploring what best fits my lifestyle. DT is clearly not suitable for me with a full time job.

Before 2008, I was a dumb mutual fund investor with some interests to improve the return by rotating funds in the retirement accounts. So I really appreciate Cobra's efforts at HT. I won't know how to do these TA staff from reading some books. I simply don't trust those claims on paper. I'm the kind of persons who have to see how something is done in person in real time to learn something well. Cobra's real time demo really enlightened me. The past four years' day-in and day-out with Cobra really helped me greatly.

greenback

ES is building a base after a good push up. This is a base breakout setup ...

greenback

Breakout is happening in JPY ...

greenback

And in NKD ...