Short Corn 明年九月合约 continued

jamesmith

This post started in 2012 September, I cannot post in it anymore after 50 days of inactivity... so starting a new one for the purpose of following it through the end.
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=185957

Here's the reason for the short:
Corn September 2013 contract is literally a separate product from this year's corn and it's price is inflated along with this year's corn by the drought. It is overpriced and trading above its fundamental value. Unless there's another drought next year, it's price shouldn't be so high.

Corn price skyrocketed last year because of daught, this push all contracts of corn up.
But, fundamentally 2013 corn is a different product from 2012 corn, thus market created a chance for us to short the overpriced 2013 corn.
Corn only have contracts in Mar, May, July, Sep and Dec. Harvest time is usually from September to November, thus picking target to short as CU13
Even though price flutuated, eventually fundamentals will do its work and bring price down.
Target price was 560 to 580 range (before the price spike by drought). However market always overreacts, it is possible for it to go down more. Be patient and wait a bit longer.

Here's current price chart for CU13 (Corn September 2013 contract).
http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/ZCU13

九天

你可以考虑 Corn MINI Short
ISN DE000AA5FT36
WKN AA5FT3

Open end 参考价 686,00USD，
今天的收市 卖出价 30,53Euro 买入价 30,59 Euro。

我们不需要调期。

jamesmith

九天 发表于 2013-1-7 06:52 PM
你可以考虑 Corn MINI Short
ISN DE000AA5FT36
WKN AA5FT3

I don't understand what you mean.
C U3 Comdty's contract value is $29837.5
For mini corn, contract value is $5967.5

九天

jamesmith 发表于 2013-1-7 07:40 PM
I don't understand what you mean.
C U3 Comdty's contract value is $29837.5
For mini corn, con ...

ISN DE000AA5FT36

is a  CBOT Corn Future Mini Short Certificate.

jamesmith

九天 发表于 2013-1-7 08:09 PM
ISN DE000AA5FT36

is a  CBOT Corn Future Mini Short Certificate.

I have never traded one of these before. What's the benefit of using this instead of future?

九天

jamesmith 发表于 2013-1-7 08:18 PM
I have never traded one of these before. What's the benefit of using this instead of future?

For me it is highly important that

1, It is Open end so that I can wait for 2 or 5 Years if I make mistake.
2, I know how much I can lose.
3, there is Mini Short.

MFTHT

jamesmith

九天 发表于 2013-1-7 09:01 PM
For me it is highly important that

1, It is Open end so that I can wait for 2 or 5 Years if I  ...

I want to short 2013 corn particularly, because 2012 drought bought 2013 corn price up.
mini corn future contract for Sep 2013 as of yesterday valued at $5967.5, if you don't use leverage, the maximum you can lose is around 6000 per contract...

九天

jamesmith 发表于 2013-1-8 09:45 AM
I want to short 2013 corn particularly, because 2012 drought bought 2013 corn price up.
mini cor ...

首先补充谢谢你的Corn Short，可能大家都有兴趣了。

Mini Short 是0，1手，它的价格 目前在688美元波动。

这个 CBOT Corn Future Mini Short Certificate ISN DE000AA5FT36
又来了一次MINI， 结果每一张ISN DE000AA5FT36只是交易0，01手的差价。

它的止损设在108，574美元，0，01手Corn Future Mini才68，8美元，二者的差价39，774美元就是
ISN DE000AA5FT36的内值，目前EURUSD大约是1，3，所以值30欧元，请见下面的走势图。

jamesmith

九天 发表于 2013-1-8 12:34 PM
首先补充谢谢你的Corn Short，可能大家都有兴趣了。

Mini Short 是0，1手，它的价格 目前在688美元波动 ...

Sorry, I am still not able to understand how this certificate works...
Is it a certificate that gives the buyer exposure to spot corn price?
what is the underlying product (i know the underlying is corn, but what delivery date?) of this certificate?

九天

jamesmith 发表于 2013-1-8 03:31 PM
Sorry, I am still not able to understand how this certificate works...
Is it a certificate that g ...

交易100张这种CBOT 某某某 Future Mini Short Certificate，
就相当于你所说的交易1个future contract，中文叫1手。

现在，corn future contract 是Open End， 所以不是Sep 2013，或者Dec 2013。。。， 的价格，
而是另一种交易所价格，你可以查一下，需要时我也可以把它的走势图传上来。

但是我们不用花全部钱买这1手期货，目前我估价，就是99% 的可能性不超过10857，4美元，
所以选定它为止损价位，只付止损价和现价之间的差价，就是大约3900美元，相当于3000欧元，
分成100张，就是上面走势图的价格。

此外，估计80% 的可能性， 这种1手期货价格不超过9365，4美元，如果选定它为止损价位，
只付止损价和现价之间的差价，就是大约2400美元，相当于1900欧元，每张19欧元。

估计60% 的可能性， 这种1手期货价格不超过8017，5美元，如果选定它为止损价位，
只付止损价和现价之间的差价，就是大约1060美元，相当于870欧元，每张8，7欧元。

个人觉得，优点是不用管调期，绝对安全，最大损失不会超过投资。缺点是短线不灵活。
但这只不过是个工具而已，雕虫小技，重要的是看准方向，就是你发现的Corn Short机会，谢谢你。

jamesmith

Whenever I talk about this trade, it goes against me...
Maybe it does make sense...I talk about it when I feel good and its going my way, which ways the market is about to turn against me -_-!
anyway...wait and be patient...

jamesmith

Ha, CU13 drops to a new low. This is near target price range of 560 to 580 before the rise caused by drought. Let's wait a bit longer to see if market overreacts to make this approach lower 500s.

By the way, everytime I talk about this particular trade (I talk about it because it is going my way and I feel happy...), market will turn against me...Let's see if it happens again this time -_-!!!

jamesmith

Planning to take profit or partial profit...
Here's a recent USDA feed report: http://commodities.about.com/gi/ ... 3FdocumentID%3D1273