2012-08-W4

bucks

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-27 02:08 PM
I bought more NUGT with 5% of the fund in my SAC Troop just now.

The underlying GDX looks weak. I'll wait a bit longer.

Diffusion

chickencoop

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-27 03:35 PM
看樣子今天真的要收個 pin 了 ...

Your Friday's prediction was spot on

snowrider

We bought more FAS and NUGT today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:
- IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
- SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- Cash 35%

SAC Troop:
- XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
- QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
- FAS 12% (8%-08/13, 4%-08/27)
- NUGT 8% (3%-08/21, 5%-08/27)
- EDZ 8% (8%-08/22)
- Cash 26%

The market gapped up and closed as a Spinning Top today (SPY), and in the continual chart (SPX or futures index) it closed as a pin with upper shadow.  As expected, the market hit 1416 and reversed.  It is still in consolidation phase in short term.  Since the long term trend is moving up, our strategy should be buying dips.

Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
07/03's high = [A]
07/24's low = [B]
08/21's high = [C]
08/24's low = [D].A
Today's high = [D].B
The wave [D].C decline will bring the market to 1378 (0.5) before Labor Day.
After this wave-[D], we will see a wave-[E] to 1475 to complete the bull market.

snowrider

Use MACD and KD% Together

Hi Snowrider, I was looking through the NUGT. My question is 1. did you buy the whole stock price or call option? 2. I am always having some wrong judgement when facing the similar indicator sample like NUGT now, so I want to ask even if MACD is showing positive 0 trend, but the slow/fast KD are in the high value, what make you feel today is a good buy chance? I am kinda confused every time when I see this situation, since when I bet it is down then it goes up, vice versa. Thanks in advance!

About NUGT, I purchased stock instead of its call option.  If you read my post long enough, you will know that I don't use any technical indicator and not even moving averages.  Regarding your using MACD, you need to know what that is!  The idea of using MACD is to follow a trend - a trend that is defined by the MACD's underlying parameterized MAs.  You use the MACD, so you want to be a trend follower.  On the other hand, using KD% is to assume that the market will go back to its mean.  You use KD%, so it makes you to trade against the trend.  The philosophies behind those two indicators contradict each other!  You might want to first define yourself a trend follower or a swing trader.  After that you might want to define in what timeframe you want to follow the trend, and what timeframe you want to trade mean reversion.  Maybe you want to trade by following a longer timeframe's MACD but enter the market only when a lower timeframe's KD% shows you the same direction signal as the that of the longer timeframe's MACD.  Please read more:

Divergence, Overbought, Oversold?

Mean Reversion

cat2011

Thank you! I sold my GLD too early, SAD!

snowrider

cat2011 发表于 2012-8-27 06:45 PM
Thank you! I sold my GLD too early, SAD!

Don't be sad!  I am famous for making bad trades, so maybe you are right to sell GLD at good price!

bucks

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-27 06:56 PM
Don't be sad!  I am famous for making bad trades, so maybe you are right to sell GLD at good price ...

雪大，最近又见到阿黄的帖子吗？专心搞自己的FUND了？

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-27 08:34 PM
雪大，最近又见到阿黄的帖子吗？专心搞自己的FUND了？

偶不知道呀!  偶沒聽到他的消息!  不知道他混得怎麼樣了!

snowrider

這盤低點打到 0.618 就強勁上破高點 ... 下不去了!  偶猜

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-28 09:23 AM
這盤低點打到 0.618 就強勁上破高點 ... 下不去了!  偶猜

可能偶希望的地鋪不會來了!

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-28 09:24 AM
可能偶希望的地鋪不會來了!

假如今天不收上影線的話 ... 地鋪不會來了 ... 這個慢牛太強了!

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-28 11:08 AM
假如今天不收上影線的話 ... 地鋪不會來了 ... 這個慢牛太強了!

不管怎樣 ... 地鋪來或不來 ... 市場終就是在上升趨勢當中 ... 不要亂空!  不要害怕而賣掉持股!  空手的人最後會當經濟轉好時 - 在非常高的高位接盤的!

Irene2011

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-28 09:10 AM
不管怎樣 ... 地鋪來或不來 ... 市場終就是在上升趨勢當中 ... 不要亂空!  不要害怕而賣掉持股!  空手的人 ...

好，不卖。：-）

snowrider

今天還好殺了點尾盤 ... 這膠著的市場的觀察點:  1416 (昨高) 1405 (今低) ... 破哪邊走哪邊 ... 偶還是猜它會跌到周五然後下周再起漲

ethanlinear

这几天波太小,玩起来没意思

snowrider

No trade for today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:
- IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
- SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- Cash 35%

SAC Troop:
- XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
- QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
- FAS 12% (8%-08/13, 4%-08/27)
- NUGT 8% (3%-08/21, 5%-08/27)
- EDZ 8% (8%-08/22)
- Cash 26%

The market had a low open and closed as a Inverted White Hammer (SPY) (or a Doji in SPX or futures index).  Now the market has been squeezed into the crossroad of the direction for next few days.  Obervation keys: 1416 (yesterday's high) and 1405 (today's low).  A breakout of that narrow range will signal a short term direction for the rest of the week.  Our strategy is still buying dips.

Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
07/03's high = [A]
07/24's low = [B]
08/21's high = [C]
08/24's low = [D].A
08/27's high = [D].B
The wave [D].C decline will bring the market to 1378 (0.5) before Labor Day.
After the wave-[D], we will see a wave-[E] to 1475 to end this bull market.
An alternative move is that the market falsely penetrates 1416 and falls back to 1389 (0.382).

Irene2011

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-28 02:35 PM
No trade for today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:

snowrider

Irene2011 发表于 2012-8-29 12:31 AM

Irene - 謝謝!  現在越來越清淡了這裡 ...

Irene2011

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-28 10:41 PM
Irene - 謝謝!  現在越來越清淡了這裡 ...

不仅是这里，到处都很清淡。看空的太多了。