Perfect Wave - 2012-1/2

大牛Steve

一大早起床，看见雪骑老大挪了地盘，却没法回帖。

数波是俺在技术分析学习中最感兴趣的部分，从结构上帮助俺由表入里地了解可能的动向，方向判断的准确性高于其他方法，俺会跟从雪骑老大继续学习。

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2012-3-12 20:10
一大早起床，看见雪骑老大挪了地盘，却没法回帖。

数波是俺在技术分析学习中最感兴趣的部分，从结构上帮 ...

謝謝大牛 你讓偶感覺到遇到知音 因為 we speak the same language!

關於SP 目前可能在走 irregular correction 做浪 IV
謝謝

snowrider

今天SP的走法證明：
1. 這可能不是在走 irregular correction 的 b 浪
2. 浪 III.5 可能早已在 02/09/2012 完成
3. 浪 IV 可能是一個 flat 在 03/06/2012 完成
4. 目前可能在走浪 V (i.e., [[B]].[C].V), 可能的完成目標在 1400 area (assuming I = V)

snowrider

这波预测的1400算到了吗?

xiangpang - 現在在走灰線劇本 謝謝

snowrider

下周开始熊熊就好过了？

thirdwheel - 這也不一定
現在可能是牛尾 但有多長 偶們不知道
千萬不能亂放空
一定要等反轉信號出現才能空

大牛Steve

snowrider

Quote from jas_in_hbca:

[B]bot a few apr 505 puts on aapl @ 2.88

looking for 540 to exit some

nice count . hopefully this 5th wave doesnt extend.

looks like a possible exhaustion gap yesterday on hi vol too [/B]

jas_in_hbca - Thanks!  Yes some people are saying that the release day of iPad3 is the reversal day of AAPL.  Now the wave count for SP is taking the grey line scenario, which it has almost finished the 5-5-5 ... wave.  I am thinking that either tomorrow or next Wednesday the key reversal could occur.

snowrider

Well done on SP 1400. I do not expect it to hold for now either, but do you really believe it will drop below 1300? Not saying I don't think it will or not, just curious about your opinion.

4ex - Thanks for commenting.  As you know that my prediction is all based on EW theory, sometimes people don't believe something would happen and I don't believe either.  If the current wave is really wave-[[B]]-[C]-V-5 (most likely ending today or maybe next wednesday with extension), then next leg could go all the way down to 1280 area.  Let's see how the market acts.  :)

snowrider

03/17/2012

Comments are welcome!

Diffusion

snowrider 发表于 2012-3-17 15:06
03/17/2012

Comments are welcome!

同意，

大牛Steve

哇，终于走到头啦！

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2012-3-18 04:08
哇，终于走到头啦！

就是不知道會不會 又再來一個 extension   則到 1440

大牛Steve

snowrider 发表于 2012-3-18 23:25
就是不知道會不會 又再來一個 extension   則到 1440

没关系，空仓观望。

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2012-3-18 10:31
没关系，空仓观望。

"空仓" 或 "空手" ???

spo

拜读，谢谢

snowrider

Opinion is that we are due somewhat of a correction in the SP500.
Nice work Snowrider! SP500 will close the week under the 1400 mark and reinforces the downwards trend.

Thank you Michael.  I am hoping that SP does not make any extension from here; otherwise, the extension could go to 1440.  Let's wait and see. :)

snowrider

Quote from MADASINHATTER:
Yeah i got one.Why do you call it perfect? Do you mean in hindsight? Or is it part of the new world order where you take a word or phrase and use it to describe the complete opposite? Like saying " bringing peace and stability" while dropping bombs on people.Is it perfect in that sense? Where you show that it could go either up or down,on a scale of 1-10 how useful and perfect is that,say compared to just guessing?

MADASINHATTER - I call it Perfect Wave because it is the brand of the series of my wave posts.  I could have called it Snowrider's Wave Analysis (but that did not sound powerful).  Of course, you can interpet the word "perfect" as anything as you want.  The analysis is of some educated guess.  Isn't the whole world making guesses all the time?  The analysis is based on the Elliott Wave Principle.  If you don't know what that is, I would recommend you getting a book and study first.

snowrider

Quote from bwolinsky:
What has your backtest showed and what have your results been?
It's apparent some logic's went into the chart drawings, but none placed on any performance summaries or analysis of the data.

Reminds me of Hershyites, must draw straight lines, without questioning whether they actually did go to where they ended when they were drawn or any regard to what actually happened later.

This thread is missing that analysis, and it's required if you expect anyone to really analyze the charts that have been posted.

bwolinsky - I have extensively played system long time ago, I wrote tons of systems with TradeStation, I did backtesting 24x7, and then I threw all my systems to trash can.  What I want to tell you about backtest is ... been there and done that.  If you are asking some trader who utilizes price action and/or pattern methodologies (e.g., Gann, Elliott Wave, Dow Theory etc.) about back testing, you ask a wrong question!

I post my wave analysis here not looking for followers.  I am looking for people who speak the same langauage (are also playing EW) for discussion.  I am looking for people who enjoy playing EW on trading like playing chess.  If you don't believe in EW, you won't be interested in reading my posts.

snowrider

03/24/2012

Comments are welcome!

silicon_beaver

possible peak 1440?