Perfect Wave - 2012-1/2

snowrider

I am starting a new thread for 2012's first half year (Jan - Jun), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY.  My previous wave counts can be found from:
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=142788

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly - [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly - [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly - [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly - I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily - _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly - __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

My labeling for wave formation in a segment = Wave Name + Wave Formation
For example, [A3] = 3 segments in a wave [A]
For example, [A3][B3][C5] = 3-3-5 formation for waves [A][B][C]

My labeling for zigzag is the combination of R.N. Elliott's classical labeling and my wave formation labeling.  DO NOT USE R.P.'s W-X-Y(-X-Z) labeling because it creates confusion and lacks the flexibility of changing wave counts.

I am getting lazy on updating the counts because I don't know how many people are following.  I might stop writing this at anytime.  If you are an audience of my threads, please PM me to let me know so that I won't forget to keep you updated if I stop writing.

passer

我在認真的FOLLOW. 多謝

bucks

I am a loyal follower. very insightful

snowrider

01/01/2012 Monthly Charts

Comments are welcome!

NYQ

Learned, thanks.

snowrider

I just noticed that I had a typo in gold's month chart.

The final target of gold's super bull market could be $1,960.  The extension wave [[[V]]].[[IX]] should be labelled as [[[V]]].[[E]].[IX].

littletiger

snowrider 发表于 2012-1-1 14:39
01/01/2012 Monthly Charts

Comments are welcome!

Snowrider,

I am checking E-Wave during this year end. i have following questions and confusions that need your help:

1. for the [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]] in your SPX chart, (2000-2009, monthly correction wave), are they 3-3-5 formation? and can you show me how you plot the lower level E-Wave for the each segment of 3-3-5? (you can put it in your blog at hutong)

2. for the coming segment (2009 and forward), what are [[[D]]] and [[[E]]]?

OR

3. putting in another way, is the  [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]] in your SPX chart, (2000-2009, monthly correction) completed or not? if it is a completed correction wave to [[[[III]]]], are we epecting new bull market of [[[[VI]]]]?  or they formed a [[[[A]]]]; and we
will see [[[[B]]]]] and [[[[C]]]] for coming years? is it too long before [[[[VI]]]] is coming?

silicon_beaver

JohnHsu

snowrider

01/01/2012 SP Monthly Chart Again

An alternative count:

[[[A]]].[[C]] becomes [[[[IV]]]]
[[[B]]] becomes [[[[V]]]]
[[[C]]].[[C]] becomes [[[A]]]
[[[D]]].[[C]] becomes [[[B]]]
If this is the scenario, we are in [[[C]]] now, and it could go to 550-650 when it finishes.

snowrider

littletiger 发表于 2012-1-1 15:25
Snowrider,

I am checking E-Wave during this year end. i have following questions and confusions ...

littletiger - Please see below:

...1. for the [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]] in your SPX chart, (2000-2009, monthly correction wave), are they 3-3-5 formation? and can you show me how you plot the lower level E-Wave for the each segment of 3-3-5? (you can put it in your blog at hutong)...

They are not 3-3-5.  [[[A]]] is definitely a 3.  [[[C]]] is highly possible a 3 too.  [[[B]]] could be a 3 or a 5 depending on how we see it.

...2. for the coming segment (2009 and forward), what are [[[D]]] and [[[E]]]?
...

[[[D]]] and [[[E]]] are part of [[[[IV]]]], where the assumption is that they are in a wave-4's abcde triangle.  (See above chart.)

...3. putting in another way, is the  [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]] in your SPX chart, (2000-2009, monthly correction) completed or not? if it is a completed correction wave to [[[[III]]]], are we epecting new bull market of [[[[VI]]]]?  or they formed a [[[[A]]]]; and we will see [[[[B]]]]] and [[[[C]]]] for coming years? is it too long before [[[[VI]]]] is coming?

The purple line has the assumption that [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]]-[[[D]]] have completed, and now we are in [[[E]]] to form [[[[IV]]]].  An alternative count is that [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]] has completed the [[[[IV]]]], and we are in the early stage of [[[[V]]]].

littletiger

snowrider 发表于 2012-1-1 22:30
01/01/2012 SP Monthly Chart Again

An alternative count:

very unlikely to be alternative count.
even if the alternative count becomes true, wave [[[B]]] should take longer time frame before we see [[[C]]].

snowrider

where does your count put the highs in on the sp? i reckon we are going to 1330 ish before trading down into the summer making a decent bounce into end of year

Rothschild - I would guess that SP spot index 1320 area could be where the reversal starts.  We need to pay attention if SP ever moves to that area to see if there is any sign of exhaustion.

littletiger

snowrider 发表于 2012-1-1 22:44
littletiger - Please see below:

3x, for explanation.that is what i understood from your chart.


feedback:
1.your current [[[C]]] is very possible (it puts the sharp drop in 2008 into wave 3 of [[[C]]].[[c]].) although a lot of people including me put it into 5 waves.
2. I have a bit hard time to accept the 3 waves in [[[A]]] although I have this alternative count as well.
3. Overall, I like this wave count of [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]] as a corrective wave.

Comment:
1. the alternative count is unlikely (a lot of things to say about it, but ...)
2. the purple one is very possible. but could be more complicated than what the purple line illustrates
3. DOW is more bullish > SPX more bullish than > Nasdaq.  i am coufused by reconciling these 3 as well.

Confusion and questions
personally, it is hard to accept [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]]-D-E; But, on the other hand
if the correction wave is completed as [[[A]]]-[[[B]]]-[[[C]]]; the 2009 rally up to today is not healthy impusilve.
it is more likely to be corrective wave and i do not know how to count them.

, I am a green hand on E-wave.

cat2011

Snow, thank you for your update. Happy New Year!

新年快乐，万事如意

cc2265

Happy new year!
thanks, snowrider.

mjmj

hunting

新年快乐万事如意
谢谢你的波浪图，我不会数但喜欢看，月线图最好每个月更新，日线图最好每周更新，，，

spo

跟着雪骑抓大波，yeah

snowrider

01/08/2012

Comments are welcome!