10/03/2011 Market Outlook (When pattern and signal conflict)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: LOWER CLOSE AHEAD

今天的信号和price pattern有冲突：

• Price pattern是刚刚从一个长达两个月之久的consolidation area下破，这样的情况通常意味着下面还有的跌，至少是Fib 61.8% Measured Move to SPX 1079ish。为什么？因为consolidation就像弹簧一样，被挤压了两个月之久的弹簧一旦爆发出来是会很猛的。此外，这两个月的consolidation area本身也成了一个非常强的resistance，很少情况，第一次反弹，就能打破这样的consolidation area的。
• 从信号角度讲，则是at least a sizeable rebound is due。有些信号，根据我的经验，基本是不能与之argue的，今天就有两个这样的信号，NYLOW and 3 Major Distribution Days，他们是相当可靠的。
• 那么怎么resolve这样的冲突呢？我的经验是通常price pattern wins，何况target 1079ish并不远，以现在的下跌速度，一天就到了，加上有证据证明，lower close ahead，所以我的猜测是可能先去1079，然后才会有大反弹，而不是今天low was in了。

下面的图需要点经验才能感觉到这样下破的严重性，没有经验的，可以看看target 1079是怎么得来的吧。

 

下面的图是我说lower close ahead的理由，鲜有exception。

 

下面的图是为什么说有些信号是不能与之argue的，a sizeable rebound应该就在眼前了。

NYLOW (NYSE New 52-Week Lows)接近1,000的时候，通常至少是个short-term bottom。

 

一般2到3个Major Distribution Day以后都会有比较大的反弹。我们现在已经有3个Major Distribution Day了，因此基本接近极限了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook and 09/30 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH OCTOBER AND 4TH QUARTER

See 09/30 Market Outlook for details. The outlook also includes the October day to day seasonality chart.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in *SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 4 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN *1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

Fan8an

IMeMyself

Fan8an

IMeMyself

当时惘然

Thanks.  !

fara

美眉妹

tang1688

uturn

Thanks

dodofish

cat2011

First page

jy1029

atrader

thanks

learntrading

Thanks!

当时惘然

回复 Cobra 的帖子

Thank you.
From this report , my understanding is rebounce is sell opportunity. Max is spy 114 .
Plan to load up SDS @ 112.3

shyshark

neo

learner2009

greenback