09/12/2011 Market Outlook (Bullish Reversal Day)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:21 PM

SHORT-TERM: A BOTTOM WAS IN OR VERY CLOSE, NOT VERY BRIGHT TOMORROW THOUGH

今天可能至少是个短期bottom了，因为从下面的图看，像今天这样gap down then lower low then close in green的情况，很少有例外，此后都有至少几天的反弹。其他图的例子我就不举了，太多reversal bar了，因此不要告诉我什么VIX黑棒棒，UUP黑棒棒，啥啥啥的。

今天唯一让人不放心的地方是reversal发生在收盘前的最后一小时，不太像通常的bullish reversal day。下面的统计来自Bespoke，正好可以证明我的担心。当然，明天80%的几率收红并不能说明the bottom wasn’t in or close，所以只是说可能明天（甚至今后几天）会有反复，大家要有心理准备。

如果真的the bottom in了，那么反弹的target会是哪里呢？下面的图，周末的报告讲了，因为rebound a > a’，而pullback b’ > b表明牛牛的力量越来越弱，而熊熊的力量越来越强，如果这个规律继续的话，那么这一轮反弹的幅度，应该小于上一轮反弹的幅度，也就是说会在tinted area里结束。

1.2.0 INDU Leads Market，有同学可能会指出，INDU lower low了，是否意味着SPX会跟进？这个有可能，不过今天这个lower low不是lower than the last Swing Low，因此其重要性可能要打折扣，此外就算是说明SPX会lower low，也无法排除the bottom was in or close的可能性啊，完全可能反弹后再掉下来的哈。我个人，老实说，不愿意相信the bottom was in了，问题是我目前并没有证据证明我更愿意相信的东东。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, September Triple Witching, Dow up 6 straight and 7 of last 8.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate	3 of 5 BUY	4 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term	DOWN	6 of 6 NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	DOWN
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN	4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	UP	Breakout of long time consolidation area, not confirmed thought, but be careful.
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

spy2011 · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:22 PM

try_again · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:24 PM

Thanks

skipjack · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:24 PM

weigoodone01 · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:26 PM

spy2011 · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:27 PM

FT称中国可能购买意大利国债美股大反转

leftright · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:28 PM

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:30 PM

THANK YOU !

sunnysunny · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:31 PM

jy1029 · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:31 PM

stockoperator · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:33 PM

bucks · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:34 PM

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:35 PM

Thanks

Bencat · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:41 PM

sooners · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:41 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

ruoli · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:42 PM

austinjoe · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:45 PM

thanks

源济 · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:45 PM

livein · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:45 PM

NewMember · 发表于 2011-9-12 07:48 PM

Thank you!

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[技术分析] 09/12/2011 Market Outlook (Bullish Reversal Day)

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