08/29/2011 Market Outlook (Could pullback tomorrow but higher high ahead)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD PULLBACK TOMORROW, BUT HIGHER HIGH AHEAD

今天大盘选择了Bear Flag or Rising Wedge的走法，那么下面的看点就是是否能decisive突破下图的绿线了。

 

两个结论：

1. 明天收红的可能性很大。
2. 还有的涨，特别是如果明天没有higher high就收红的话。

下面的图是明天可能会收红的理由，NYMO太高了，图上看，只有一次例外，明天收绿。

 

下面的两个图是还有的涨的理由，基本就是惯性定律啦，这么强的上涨，很少会突然就fail的。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH TUESDAY, BULLISH THURSDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

• August’s next-to-last trading day, S&P up only twice in last 14 years.
• First trading day in September, S&P up 11 of last 15, back-to-back huge gains 1997 and 1998, up 3.1% and 3.9%.

Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• N/A

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 3 of 5 SELL 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term UP 4 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken. EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold. XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Long term support broken. IYR & Weekly DOWN   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

skipjack

skipjack

wower

Thank you!
老大请问两个问题：
1，两条蓝实线是什么线？
2，你这个wave 4 的长度幅度比起wave 2 是不是有点稍微夸张了一点？

胡同儿串子

美眉妹

vicvic

traderA

IMeMyself

当时惘然

sc168

ht2010

Cobra

wower 发表于 2011-8-29 20:06
Thank you!
老大请问两个问题：
1，两条蓝实线是什么线？

两条蓝实线是wedge line啊？

夸张？我只是示意方向，如果能像图里那么准确到时间点，那我还在这里写啥报告？早就是股神了哈。

oda

oldpigwang

oldpigwang

Cobra Da: 都变牛了=HH/HL.
还有希望‘SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000’吗？

dodofish

ut1984

MtlJaysFan

Elephant