1. Market always goes up in long term
2. There appears to have 17 year cycle alternating between super bull period and super consolidation (bear) period since the end of World War II.
3. Currently we are 11 years in a super consolidation period starting from 2000. I expect another 5-6 more years to end this cycle and start another super bull phase.
4. We are more like in 1974 (bear market in consolidation phase) than in 1987 or 1998 (bear market in bull phase).
5. The best strategy is to stay out of market for the next 3-4 years until market reaches the low range of this consolidation period.
The upside potential is limited at this point while downside risk is huge. If you wait to buy at the low end of this range, your risk/reward profile will be very good. The market is going down from here if history can tell us anything.
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发表于 2011-8-13 03:01 PM
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