08/12/2011 Market Outlook (Bull Flag in Bear Flag)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-8-13 02:39 PM

SHORT-TERM: MORE ON THE UPSIDE

没有新东西，还是认为反弹没有结束，不过最终是会掉下来的。关于最终会掉下来的理由，在Active Bearish Outlook里有一大堆，就不再赘述了。从图上看，不同的time frame可以得出不同的结论，15 min图看着很bullish，因此还可能涨几天，但是60 min图的Bear Flag or Pennant很明显，因此目前看，最终还是要continue lower的，当然，什么时候开跌，得等15 min图的Pennant or Symmetrical Triangle走完才知道。

有很多童鞋指出了SPY weekly Hammer，看着很bullish，下面是统计，看着，下周以及下下周都不错。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 15.
August expiration day bullish lately, Dow up 7 in a row 2003 – 2009.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

~~08/04 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.~~

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook, 08/08 Market Outlook, 08/09 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 3 SELL
Intermediate	5 of 5 SELL	4 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term	UP	6 of 6 NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN	Triple Top breakdown, targeting Oct lows.
IWM & Weekly	DOWN
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly	DOWN	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support!
IYR & Weekly	DOWN
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

jcs · 发表于 2011-8-13 02:44 PM

jcs · 发表于 2011-8-13 02:45 PM

jcs · 发表于 2011-8-13 02:45 PM

bucks · 发表于 2011-8-13 02:45 PM

jcs · 发表于 2011-8-13 02:45 PM

spo · 发表于 2011-8-13 02:50 PM

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-8-13 02:54 PM

Thanks

purety · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:07 PM

friday's action is a little suspicious and bearish at least for the short term

美眉妹 · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:07 PM

donalan · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:12 PM

hu86390216 · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:15 PM

google · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:26 PM

不光是SPY weekly Hammer, VIX also has inverse weekly hammer

google · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:27 PM

老大，你图里面的弧线是用什么东东画的？

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:28 PM

Thank you

jy1029 · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:42 PM

whzdf · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:42 PM

acoust · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:45 PM

cartier · 发表于 2011-8-13 04:26 PM

ut1984 · 发表于 2011-8-13 04:28 PM

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[技术分析] 08/12/2011 Market Outlook (Bull Flag in Bear Flag)

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