Gap down tomorrow

bucks

SPY has been gapping up more than 0.2% 3 days in a row. In last 300 trading days, it occurred only 9 times. More importantly, there is only one case with 4 days in a row in which SPY printed a gap-up open of >0.2%. So I put my bet on gap down, at least not big up.

Also recently Friday and Monday are bearish-oriented.

放个炮 only, let's see

Also IWM clearly lags behind SPY's performance, which is not common when the market bounces from a significant bottom. At least that's what I see.

Net position is still in long, but in the process of unloading.

haha

ByStander

福多多

sooners

Billyboy

spy2011

wyjhyd

这炮响啊!

balto

umqasr

NZX

n748

dare not to hope for a gap down

MARKET just keeps going up.

PIGS debt is a bad thing, but it becomes good once there is a bailout plan. even better than if it was not an Europe debt problem at the first place

US is approaching its debt limit, so potentially go default on its debt. Well, once the limit is raised, it's good news and market can go higher than if there was not a debt limit problem at all.

Funny, but that's how it works.

Market will see new high once the limit is raised. Even with contraction in China, with unemployment rate exceeding expectation and revised with bigger numbers within US.
Nothing matters any more.

开小差

thx, ding

lilitulip

bucks 发表于 2011-7-21 19:53
SPY has been gapping up more than 0.2% 3 days in a row. In last 300 trading days, it occurred only 9 ...

so could these two comparison indicate bottom some way? thanks

leftright

bucks

回复 lilitulip 的帖子

you could be right. I put all recent cases of 3 consecutive gap up/down days (>0.2%) on the chart below, which does indicate more likely the market will go higher. The case of  4 consecutive gap up was right out of the big bottom in last year. Let's see how tomorrow plays.

What I am saying above is just to guess a gap open less than 0.2% since its happening is kind of rare. In the meantime, the under-performance of IWM is worth of some concerns too. For short-term, I think a correction is not very far, after which the market may continue to go up. However,for longer-term, I tend to be neutral before the current daily consolidation range is broken out decisively, maybe a bit bearish-biased. As I said, my net positions is with bulls, just starting to unload step by step. If eventually SPX1370 is taken up, I will reload them.

Masktear

mengtt

donalan

回复 bucks 的帖子

顶一下吧，有点蛇老大的范。

Diver

Gap up open tomorrow.