SHORT-TERM: EXPECT REBOUND AS EARLY AS THE NEXT MONDAY
三点说明:
- 最快周一反弹。
- 统计上,下周最终收绿的几率只有25%,且下下周,下下下周都不好玩。关于这一点,将在intermediate-term session里讨论。
- 操作上,我会优先考虑sell bounce。
下面的图是通常的pattern,周五收盘前可能已经完成了二次探底(我个人认为这种可能性最大),或者周一早盘稍微lower low一下完成探底过程后既反转。
0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals,空心红棒棒反转的意味很强。
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily),VIX可能要跌。特别是VIX周五并没有Higher High,大家知道,VIX Leads,因此可能意味着SPY已经短期bottom了。
下面是关于周一的统计,可以清楚地看到,既使下周一继续跌,此后涨回来的可能性很大。
最后一个证据是CPC too high,因此周一可能收绿,至少不会再有lower low了,这个也是我认为周五收盘前就已经完成了二次探底的主要理由。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS
看图吧,不多说了,IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks都是说后面三周不是很牛牛友好。特别要注意IWM此后连跌两周的统计,是100% winning rate。(那个啥?什么?看不清图?靠,笨啊你,点击看大图,OK?心血全在图上了,以后我废话少说了,看图比读注解要简单啊。)
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.
ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:
ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:
|
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
|
|