06/02/2011 Market Outlook (The Tale of Non Farm Payrolls Report Day)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: THE SELLING IS NOT OVER YET

多半还没有跌完。下面的图算是比较bullish的情况了，Bear Flag探底，一点点lower low后就大反弹。

 

明天是Non Farm Payroll day，一般是两个规律：

• 通常bullish，并且可能是转折点。

 

• Intraday pattern经常是高开低走或者低开高走。下面的统计来自Bespoke。 顺便说，根据Bespoke，可能明天的就业数据并不坏？See Biggest ADP Payroll Misses and Subsequent Nonfarm Payrolls Results.

 

关于Cobra Impulse System，今天的Trading Signals里忘了说了，有个buy setup，但需要明天higher high且收绿来确认。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAY SEE NEW HIGH, TARGETING SPX 1352 to 1381 AREA, BIG CORRECTION MAY FOLLOW AFTER THAT

See 05/27 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE WEEK

See 05/27 Market Outlook for more details.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.
• 05/27 Market Outlook: II Correction % too high, so should be a new high ahead then followed by a real correction.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 05/27 Market Outlook: May revisit 05/25 lows the next week, at least a dip of some kind.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly UP   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly UP SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly UP   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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