06/01/2011 Market Outlook (May rebound tomorrow, but more selling ahead)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW, BUT THE SELLING IS NOT OVER YET

今天的Trading Signals很重要，统计显示明天最好的情况有76%的机会收绿，有空看看吧，这里就不再赘述了。下面的图也是说明天至少早盘会有反弹，不过由于惯性的作用，正常情况下，应该还没有跌完，所以操作上，我会优先考虑sell bounce。

 

今天有三个注意的地方：

• 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，3 point validated trend line破了，明天只要这根trend line不下破，那么就确认今天是top了。老读者应该都知道，这个看top的信号，非常可靠，当然，现在才说，可能晚了点儿。

• 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market，INDU lower low了，可能意味着SPX will follow。股市下跌的时候，由于大股是相对最安全的，所以一般应该大股比较坚挺，现在如果大股领跌的话，可能意味着是institution distribution。

• Sentimentrader的读者注意，今天Sentimentrader显示OEX Open Interest Ratio sharply down是个明显的数据错误，下图里是今天CBOE的正式数据。谁有空，帮我提醒一下Jason吧，另外，最近Sentimentrader经常把Rydex的读数搞错，该牛的说熊，该熊的说牛。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAY SEE NEW HIGH, TARGETING SPX 1352 to 1381 AREA, BIG CORRECTION MAY FOLLOW AFTER THAT

See 05/27 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE WEEK

See 05/27 Market Outlook for more details.

The following seasonality chart is from Bespoke.

 

The following seasonality chart is from Sentimentrader.

 

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

• 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) < –9, so bottomed?

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

• 4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I: Negative divergences become too much and too big.
• 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too high, so topped?
• 0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: New recovery high, so topped?

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.
• 05/27 Market Outlook: II Correction % too high, so should be a new high ahead then followed by a real correction.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 05/27 Market Outlook: May revisit 05/25 lows the next week, at least a dip of some kind.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT SPY & Weekly UP   QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly UP SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly UP TOADV MA(10) too high plus bearish reversal bar, so pullback? TLT & Weekly UP *Ascending Triangle breakout! UUP & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN XLE & Weekly UP   XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

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oldfox

Fan8an

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nanosensor

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大牛Steve

temujin

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ppteam

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