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老黄

Four Catalysts Needed For The Industrial Commodities Rally To Resume (zerohedge)

1.The Japanese government will forego the chance to introduce the meaningful, permanent fiscal rebalancing to which it might accustom the electorate under the guise of a supposedly temporary, disaster?relief measure and inveigle the BOJ into monetizing (albeit at one remove) the vast reconstruction effort needed in the country instead.

2.The Chinese will prematurely relinquish their fight against the inflation which was unleashed by their huge, unfocused stimulus’ efforts of the past two years, in the estimation that the threat to the regime’s predominance posed by slow growth and falling employment is now greater than that posed by rapidly rising prices.

3.The Fed will find an excuse to revisit a programme of ’quantitative easing’ (i.e., money printing) without first being forced to sit by and watch a prolonged retrenchment in economic activity

4.The US dollar will undergo a renewed, sharp decline, allowing existing carry?trades and ‘Risk On’ mixes to be reinstituted with the least demand for original thought. Here we should note that while, ceteris paribus, a flight from the dollar should not automatically boost commodity prices in other currencies, a combination of having a greater marginal impact in a much smaller market and the active contracting of paired trades does in practice tend to bring about such a broad appreciation.


3 is looking more likely to happen in some mild form
4. current renewed EU drama and US macro weakness have make it all difficult to say where $ is going in short term

lite1067

老黄 发表于 2011-5-30 14:57
Four Catalysts Needed For The Industrial Commodities Rally To Resume (zerohedge)

1.The Japanese g ...

黄大你还在short吗？

Poo

thanks for sharing your thoughts.