05/11/2011 Market Outlook (OEX Open Interest Ratio New High Again)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: PULLBACK NOT OVER YET

今天动静很大，不过没啥好说的，1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)并没有lower low，因此严格的讲，并不熊。但是，考虑到3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)又是放量暴涨的样子，这样commodity的sell off多半没完，因此我个人目前更倾向于是Bear Flag，就是说还没有跌完。

 

两个特别注意的地方，今天。

OEX Open Interest Ratio继续high，快赶上all time high了。看着越来越像2007年了吧？呵呵，不好玩的样子哈。。

 

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield，喊底了。这个信号喊底是相当可靠的（喊顶有时会提前一个月左右）。对于过去的准确度，参见8.2.1a Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004 and 8.2.1b Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008。什么？我个人怎么解读这个信号？我说这次不算，你信吗？昨天我还跟人说TA就是不能说这次不算，今天总不好自己打自己嘴巴子吧？所以标准答案是：Let's wait and see!

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

See 05/06 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, Monday after Mother’s Day, Dow up 12 of last 15.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
• 04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 04/21 Market Recap: SPX will close below 04/20 close soon.
• 05/05 Market Outlook: No –1,000 TICK on almost 1% down day, so 05/05 low will be taken soon.
• 05/06 Market Outlook: Bearish in 2 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly UP   IWM & Weekly UP Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful! SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly UP   XIU & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   FXE & Weekly UP   GLD & Weekly UP   GDX & Weekly DOWN   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN XLF & Weekly DOWN   IYR & Weekly UP   XLB & Weekly UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

littlevivi

PacificLegend

littlevivi

aimei

littlevivi

10-year treasure node长是说明要加息了吗？

papertiger

thanks a lot!!

oda

cartier

learner2009

acoust

First page!

Cobra

littlevivi 发表于 2011-5-11 20:12
10-year treasure node长是说明要加息了吗？

首先10 year yield涨不代表加息。3 month T-Bill yield长，才有可能表示加息。

其次，你看错图了，yield是跌了，跌得太快，所以股票就变得有吸引力了，因此往往是底部。

最后10-year treasure note不是10 year yield，两个是反向的关系。你这个问题问得本身就有问题。

福多多

当时惘然

thank you

Billyboy

sooners

回复 Cobra 的帖子

ht2010

Thanks a lot!

frogguru

MtlJaysFan

Thanks

slcgh