04/27/2011 Market Outlook (Expect pullback as early as tomorrow)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:03 PM

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

两点说明：

最快明天开始回调。
回调，如果有的话，多半是买的机会，因为至少今天的high还会被测试一下，大盘才有可能会有较大的pullback。

关于最快明天开始回调的理由有四：

SPX close above BB top for 2 consecutive days, short at today’s close cover on the very first day when SPX close below BB top since 2003, you’ve got 83% chances.

T2112太高，这个可能看着不是很extreme，但是由于很多股票已经在很高的价位了，所以目前这个位置可以算是非常extreme了，至少今年前几次这么高的时候SPX都有不同程度的回调(See blue curve in the background)。

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), 3 push up plus overshot plus ChiOsc a little high，因此至少明天早盘会比较弱。

6.5.2b Seasonality – Last Few Days of the Month，每个月的最后两天都会比较熊。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

中期，今天正式进入我在04/01 Market Recap和04/21 Market Recap提到的wave 5 target范围了，如果SPX在这个target area发生强烈反转的话，要小心primary wave 3暴跌的可能。我目前并没有证据说要暴跌，但亦不能100%证明要大涨特涨，所以只能走着瞧了，总之，知道目前是个关键区域就好了。

还记得我曾经提到过IBM ER后跌，不是好消息吧？今天AMZN ER后大涨，这个，却不是什么好消息。下面的screenshot来自Bespoke。数据有点点老，但是我的映像是无论是IBM还是AMZN最近几个ER都是符合下表的规律的。

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BULLISH WEDNESDAY

See 04/21 Market Recap for more details.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
~~02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.~~
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April.
04/21 Market Recap: QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing is bullish for the next 6 weeks.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

~~03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited.~~ Failed!
04/21 Market Recap: SPX will at least close below 04/20 close.
04/27 Market Outlook: IBM down on ER and AMZN up on ER mean lower SPX price in 5 weeks.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	CANDLESTICK	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP		More weakness would mean downtrend, be careful.
EEM & Weekly	UP	*Doji
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	*Hanging Man	May see further pullback.
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP		*3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund: Volume surge, bottomed?
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP	*Hanging Man
XLF & Weekly	DOWN	*Hanging Man	Bear Flag?
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP	*Hanging Man

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

cartier · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:05 PM

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:05 PM

本帖最后由 Jinan90 于 2011-4-27 21:07 编辑

cartier · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:05 PM

ppjeep · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:06 PM

沙发

armorr · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:08 PM

happyface · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:10 PM

thanks

stocksea · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:11 PM

FLOOR.

lwmm · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:11 PM

navybean · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:11 PM

Thanks

aimei · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:11 PM

leftright · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:14 PM

like2swing · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:16 PM

thanks, 1st page

gummykitty · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:17 PM

1st page!!

pigking · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:18 PM

老大现在这个报告一个比一个厉害了，这个内容我喜欢

谢谢

usamonkey · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:18 PM

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:20 PM

Billyboy · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:21 PM

Thanks.

NZX · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:22 PM

aimei · 发表于 2011-4-27 08:24 PM

回复 Cobra 的帖子

laoda, Why I heard sell in May?

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[技术分析] 04/27/2011 Market Outlook (Expect pullback as early as tomorrow)

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