04/21/2011 大盘回顾 （Could see some short-term weakness）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 4/20,4/26 04/17 : 04/20 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/20

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited. 03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months. 04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 03/18 Market Recap: 03/16 lows will be revisited. My Thoughts More on the upside but beware of short-term risks as VIX is now way below its BB bottom.

SPY SYSTEM ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. Non-Stop 04/15 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only. CI Buy & Hold 04/18 S N/A CI Swing 04/18 S 2*ATR(10) *Stopped out on 04/21 with loss. Short-term UP N/A I hold long position over the weekend.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

三点说明：

1. 周一可能高开（或者higher high），但会收红。
2. 短期会有回调，mini target是close below 04/20 closes。
3. 如果回调不是很猛的话，那么是buy dip的良机。

为什么可能周一高开，但会收红？我在周四的After Bell Quick Summary里已经解释了，chart pattern应该还有一冲，但是最近NYADV的统计显示周一收红的几率比较大。

 

关于短期回调的预期，主要理由还是VIX dropped below BB bottom，04/20 Market Recap里讲了一大堆VIX and BB的故事，他们依然有效。下面是有史以来所有VIX body completely out of BB bottom (means both open and close are below BB bottom)的图。StockCharts的VIX在2004年以前只有close价，因此，这里只有2004年以后的小图。不管怎样，应该很清楚，至少短期100%会有一天SPX close below 04/20 closes。注意，从图上看，至少是过去，几率很大VIX body completely out of BB bottom意味着比较大的pullback，因此不能完全排除intermediate-term top的可能性。当然，目前我个人认为这个可能性不大，主要理由还是最近长得很猛，一般是不会马上就掉下来的，此外，下面的intermediate-term session将证明QQQ Bullish Engulfing是很牛的。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381

两个理由，我在04/01 Market Recap里提到的SPX target 1352 to 1381仍然有效。

可能是个Symmetrical Triangle，这是wave 4最常见的形状，因此当初按照wave 5计算出来的target area就更有道理了。具体怎么计算出的这个target area，请参见04/01 Market Recap。

 

另一个理由是QQQ weekly Bullish Engulfing，下面是back test, see highlighted in green, buy at Friday’s close sell 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 week later，看起来非常的牛。SPY的back test，顺便说，就没有这个效果，虽然不熊。考虑到Financials比较弱，因此我的猜测是下面QQQ领涨，而SPY会相对弱一些。

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BULLISH WEDNESDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, day after Easter, worst post-holiday, S&P down 16 of 20 from 1984 to 2003, but improving recently, up 6 of last 7, including 1.5% gain in 2008.

6.5.2b Seasonality – Last Few Days of the Month, could be bearish Thursday and Friday but bullish Wednesday.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	UP
IWM & Weekly	UP
SSEC & Weekly	UP
EEM & Weekly	UP
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
FXE & Weekly	UP
GLD & Weekly	UP
GDX & Weekly	04/18 L
USO & Weekly	UP
XLE & Weekly	UP
XLF & Weekly	DOWN
IYR & Weekly	UP
XLB & Weekly	UP
DBA & Weekly	DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

frogguru

华丽丽的

frogguru

terranmn

Thirty-cents

Thanks,

student009

lehldk

IMeMyself

thanks

maldini

CoolMax

fortune1212

vicvic

当时惘然

thank you

cc2265

pigking

我以为还是个玩笑呢，原来是真的。

大牛Steve

usamonkey

chickencoop

farshine

Fan8an