With Japan behind us and on going saga over the middle east, US stock market is trying to get on its footing after 4 weeks of big sell off. One interesting observation comparing to the same period last year is the timeline of Quantitative Easing.
QE1 ended on the first quarter of 2010, although it took a little time for the securities to settle on the balance sheet. Market topped on Apr 2010, which started the 4 month intermediate correction causing the Nasdaq to correct more than 18% (short of 20% bear market threshold).
QE2 will end on June 2011. With Fed behind the market lifting the boat, I doubt the market will enter a much worse correction. A replay of Feb-Apr 2010 stock market is ahead of us?
BIDU breaks out of a 5 week flat base today to new high with convincing vol. The ability for it to hold gains next days ahead will provide some clues if the on going rally attempt will have any ammo left.
There are not many solid growth stocks left in terms of constructive chart patterns (chart patterns discloses the supply/demand relationships in the stock market, so never dismiss them as useless out of ignorance). To name a few, bidu, nflx, lulu, tibx/infa (oracle will report tomorrow), open, gmcr etc. The names are getting shorter and shorter meaning the market is too stretched out of the 2 year bull run. One day the big boyz will threw a bear market to clean the plate anew.
Silver is make history again. If Fed decides to do QE3 .... Bang ... Silver will go to 100 :-)
I bet IBD will call today a follow through day, although it is on the weak side. Some of the leading growth names break out of short consolidations, BIDU, OPEN, INFA, TIBX, CAT. Increasingly, my thesis that market is going to replay Feb 2010 looks more likely. Let's hope ORCL and RIMM won't screw the party after their ER today.
Market is looking pretty strong here, vol is heavier, but sill below moving averages. Idealy you want to see big gains in strong turn over, but it is what it is. Market with no sellers can rise on its own. Small cap has taken out the Feb high, Nasdaq should soon to follow ...
Market is running higher on strong job numbers. Vol is running hot in both exchanges. Where the market closes today should give vital clues where the market is going. The worst thing u want to see is close in red in big surge of vol. US dollar is bouncing, expectation is up that Fed will hike the rate? Gold/Silver are getting hit. It remains to be seen if GOLD/SLV rally is over. Historically, April is a strong month because of the seasonality and new IRA inflow. I bet the market will hit a high note with Nasdaq making new highs. We will see ...
aapl and intc (sox) are the big draggers to the market. As long as they don't fall off cliff ... Nasdaq should follow the small cap to new highs. Emerging markets are taking the lead again. Chinese ADRs are getting heavily bought, e.g. SINA, SOHU, BIDU. This does not smell like a bear market to me, rather a slow steady move higher as I see it ...
littlevivi 发表于 2011-4-4 16:13
where is the cliff? I am worried about my tech stock....
You should be worried. Tech (especially sox) is out of favor now. Construction, oil, medical, mingings are taking the lead, along with a few true growth leaders I am holding ...
silver is getting a little climax here, so taking a little off the table is not a bad idea ... but u should not sell ALL as most of the 168ers here would do ... ride the darn profit ... to SILVER 100? (I would say at least 50)
angelafund 发表于 2011-4-8 14:19
silver is getting a little climax here, so taking a little off the table is not a bad idea ... but ...
big money is made when a stock (or a commodity) enters climax run ... which can get ur position to appreciate 20-50% or even double in a week or two ... silver is clearly getting close ... to that stage ... for all those silver holders ... hold your breath and enjoy the ride ...the best gain has yet to come ... LOL
* Commodities got a big hit today with oils and oil stocks taking the obvious toll. With semiconductors and big cap tech already rolling over, the broken last straw on commodities seem to nail the market in the coffin.
* Secondary indicators like AAII sentiments or Investors' intelligence survey also point to a bearish picture with investment advisers overwhelmingly bullish.
* The bull market from March low of 2009 is aged.
* Fewer growth leaders are holding up with more and more former big runners breaking down.
* The accumulating rating on the big indices such as Nasdaq and NYSE is a miserable E, pointing to institution selling
To make some offensive selling to raise cash is prudent at this moment. Market may bounce/chop around due to earning announcement coming up.
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-3-23 06:54 PM
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发表于 2011-3-23 10:52 PM
