[ZT] Trading is a Game of Probability.

palm

I like this one. Here are the points.

 

 "Trading is a game of probability, and of course you don't win 100% of the time, but if you are consistent in trading these kind of high probability situations you will win a significantly high percentage of time over the course of the year. " 

 

"The NYSE volume was light again yesterday at 1.21 billion shares, and that has been the case for most of this rally after the initial reversal days off the 1257 low. It has been more a lack of selling rather than significant buying pressure that has pushed the $SPX, in addition to some very timely buy programs, and also forcing gap up NYSE openings due to the Globex futures pre-9:30AM action, which is just a easy game of manipulation for the large "players", and also the PPT (plunge protection team).

"

 

"We have the FOMC rate meeting today, Wednesday is month end, and is also the initial GDP number, which is about 90% estimated by the BEA, and is just a political number now as bad as the jobs report. Two weeks ago President Bush said it is a slowdown, not a recession, so I guess that means the GDP number won't be a negative surprise. The PPT is probably ready to accelerate any upside surprise 1st time estimated GDP number."

 

The original article link: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/khview/-76653.cfm

[ 本帖最后由 palm 于 2008-4-29 11:22 编辑 ]

coolwind

足球比赛对于观众来说是个概率问题，对教练和运动员就是训练和战术问题了。 不同的角度，用不同的思维。搞学术的可以用很多概率，要是真的操作起来，必须保证有个底线。

palm

Not exactly. You have a good playbook and execute it very well but result could just the opposite. Something of small probability happens. It doesn't matter it is a ball game or a trading game.

还在发呆

原帖由 coolwind 于 2008-4-29 22:08 发表 足球比赛对于观众来说是个概率问题，对教练和运动员就是训练和战术问题了。不同的角度，用不同的思维。搞学术的可以用很多概率，要是真的操作起来，必须保证有个底线。

 

赞！只有打破思维定势，才能有新发现！