02/28/2011 大盘回顾 （New High Wanted Tomorrow）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered on 02/24. 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: A few short-term long signal triggered on 02/23. BEARISH 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw. ST Model 02/25 L *Breakeven  *Adjust stop loss. Short-term *UP 02/18 High 02/24 Low Hold both short and long until stop loss being hit.

My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 will last awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited in 69 calendar days on average.

 

SHORT-TERM: IF NO NEW HIGH TOMORROW, THEN BEAR MAY STILL HAVE CHANCES

 

今天没啥说的，一切看明天了，如果明天涨，但不能new high的话，根据N vs N的规则，同样三天，bear advanced more，那么by definition，这是个sellable bounce，熊熊还有希望，不管后天是否有new high。

 

 

其他没说的，提醒一下，统计上讲，反转经常发生在三月份，以目前看，应该是top。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

 

See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH

 

See 02/25 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		Clear breakout on WTIC chart.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

PacificLegend

当时惘然

thank you.

hi-liter

Thanks, 先顶再读。

greenback

navybean

Thanks

福多多

lijinglj

Thirty-cents

Thanks

acoust

First page!

oda

hfang01

hunting

skipjack

Thanks

impresario100

learner2009

Bencat

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

Jinan90

谢谢老大的纲领，小牛在第一页顶。

ahdou