01/20/2011 大盘回顾 （CPCE Top Signal Confirmed）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 01/19,01/26 01/19 : 01/20 Next pivot date: 01/19

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max was 25. 12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually? 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close? 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped? 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped? 12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped? 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down). 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January. 01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good. 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season. 01/07 Market Recap: SPX weekly price volume negative divergence, 71% chances SPX < 1271 in 2 weeks. 01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign. 01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Too high above MA(200). 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): Short setup triggered on 01/18. *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though. Short-term N/A N/A Trend is DOWN.  I hold both long and short overnight.

My Thoughts *Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, it looks like so though.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE REBOUND TODAY IS MORE LIKELY TO FAIL

 

今天的反弹正好止于Fib 50%，所以现在很难说反弹是否结束了，或者there’s more，要看明天。基本上，我认为这次反弹多半会fail，today’s low at least will be tested。理由除了一般的pattern，地球人做什么都喜欢try twice before trying the opposite side以外，SPY 60 min chart上的ChiOsc is way too high，这个很大几率意味着at least an intraday pullback。

 

 

其他没啥说的，01/18 highs是不是the high，熊熊至少要走出个1-2-3 Trend Change pattern来，so far，还没有，因此目前只有等待。从table above积累的那么多bearish signals来看，01/18 highs是the high的可能性还是比较高的，特别是今天又有个非常可靠的top signal confirmed：0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，3 point validated trend line昨天就breakout了，吸取上次失败的教训，所以昨天我没有blah blah，但是今天是clearly breakout了，因此我认为这个top信号有效，well, let’s see这次准不准。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

 

The price and time target I’ve been blah blah for the intermediate-term has finally been met, although the time target seems a little too early but let’s give it another week to see whether the forecast is good or bad. See 01/14 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY, HORRIBLE WHOLE WEEK

 

See 01/14 Market Recap for more details. Also see 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	*01/20 S
NDX Weekly	UP	Too far away from MA(200) and BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	*DOWN
EEM		*Testing major trend line. Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful.
TLT		0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly	UP
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD		1-2-3 trend change, wait for further confirm, GLD may fall into a downtrend.
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/17 S	1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself.
GDX Weekly	DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L	*Testing major trend line and MA(20).
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far away from MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP	Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR		*Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	01/19 S	*Testing major trend line and MA(50).
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

当时惘然

FIRST PAGE

当时惘然

sf ?

azzz

vicvic

当时惘然

thank you for your report.
spy target down to $126 ?

mikeqc

1st page

Cobra

thank you for your report.
spy target down to $126 ?
当时惘然 发表于 2011-1-20 20:12

真的开跌的话，target至少是122。

开小差

thx, ding

happyface

thanks

skipjack

Thanks

jWishbone

Thanks.

ahdou

当时惘然

回复 8# Cobra


thank you again.

Jinan90

Thanks.

dreampen

Thanks!

nanosensor

Thanks

sandera

sunnysunny

lanz