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本帖最后由 revolver 于 2010-12-12 12:00 编辑
November China official CPI is over 5% (surprise?), but China chose to raise RRR (reserve requirement rate) again instead of of interest rate. China government now has no place to hide its fear to the potential burst of own housing bubble and its reluctance to raise interest rate in the face of hyperinflation. It's widely believed that China has underestimated CPI by about 5% in its official release in the past years. So very possibly the actual CPI have now gone beyond the boundary of 10%. Both high inflation and high negative real interest rate are highly destructive to economic environment. Fast moving prices make the long-term planning impossible for market players from business to consumers. And the negative interest rate wipes out the wealth of savers and benefits those borrowers & rent-seekers. However ironically, one more step slipping towards the apocalypse is indeed very bullish to the asset market in the short run. China's reluctance to raise interest rate is a relief to risk assets and speculations in all Chinese assets from food to property will continue.
European situation is stabilized after ECB aggressively purchased Spain, Portugal & Ireland bonds. There were some talks about common Euro bond lately, which has certainly been rejected by Germany. The entire EURO crisis basically, is a game in Germany's hands now. From the very beginning, Germany has been carefully planning, and in well-timed and well-measured approaches, taking down the PIIGS countries one by one. I believe after the crisis, all PIIGS countries will become Germany's 'slaves' in the sense that they would be all heavily in debt to Germany (or ECB), the debt would be at levels which is too high to repay by their own surplus (if any), but too small to threaten the stability of the entire EURO region. And Germany would start to play a heavy hand into PIIGS domestic politics. But in the short run, after rescued Ireland I believe Germany will not rush into Portugal so soon. Portugal is not a problem at all, but its Iberian neighbor Spain is definitely not a small piece to swallow. For now, Germany most likely will wait and see, to allow markets to digest slowly the negative factors in Ireland rescue before launch the new attack. So to me, EURO is not at any substantial risk for the moment and it would gradually stabilize in the coming months which is again positive to global markets.
I was previously watching for a double-top after QE2 announcement. However, SPX has actually formed a small cup & handle and broken out the resistance at 1220. The failure of double-top shows that the market is actually more confident on the QE2 effects than previously expected. Most importantly, with most US houses trumpeting a higher real GDP growth, it indicates that US top rulers are now determined to pursue an expansionary policies on both fiscal & monetary sides and more can be pulled out from the pocket if needed. When inflation is the last thing to concern, the nominal price of all assets will advance.
To further illustrate how important technically the current level is, from the weekly chart can see it's also a key point now for SPX to decide whether to form a long-term cup & handle at the critical fibonacci 62% of the previous big down trend from November 2007 to April 2009. An upside break-out would be tremendously bullish sign and this almost indicates a potential target at previous top of 1575! However, remember this, in an inflationary age your real wealth is determined by the purchasing power but not merely the number in your stock account. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-12-12 11:03 AM
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发表于 2010-12-12 11:17 AM
