|
|
SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
Partial profits on 09/24. |
ST Model |
11/23 S |
1.9*ATR(10) |
|
NYMO Sell |
11/12 S |
11/24 High |
Reference only, not meant to be followed. | |
SHORT-TERM: THE LOW COULD BE IN, WATCH SPX 1200 BREAKOUT TO CONFIRM
可能the low was in了。两个理由:
- 典型的breakout downtrend line,然后back test the previous low (这个也免强可以看作是我一直唠叨的the 2nd leg down),下面就看能否breakout SPX 1200 to confirm了。
- 时间上,pullback 6 trading days,也差不多符合今年so far pullback range from 5 to 8 trading days的time window。
Pattern and time都吻合,因此有可能the low was in了,注意,是有可能哈,明天breakdown below 11/16 lows的话,就当我是FP啦。至于这个是不是广大Elliott Wave analysts说的Wave 5 up,等破了11/05 highs再说吧,下面的图只是给个概念,理论上wave 5可以到1300+,非常非常可观哈。
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily),这个也支持the low was in的说法,at least for short-term。
假设,我说假设哈,1200明天breakout了,confirm low was in了,为什么我不sure这是wave 5 up呢?同样也是1-2-3 Trend Change pattern,不能排除这次反弹也是典型的test the previous highs的可能性,因此前面我说,是不是wave 5,要等11/05 highs decisively breakout再说啦。熊熊下面的看点,是put call ratio,如果反弹几天,就很疯狂的话,那么机会大大的,这一轮反弹仅仅是retest the previous high。当然,目前熊熊要做的最好就是等待。
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market,INDU率先lower low了,这个支持,反弹(if any)可能仅仅是retest the previous high的说法。Refer HERE for more evidences about INDU Leads Market, if interested.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD
The intermediate-term is in danger of entering a downtrend. See 11/23 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEARISH, WEDNESDAY (12/01) BULLISH, WHOLE WEEK BEARISH
See 11/26 Market Recap for more details. For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
|