灌水贴

jsl

AMD scales down.

            It is not surprising to have a bad news on a defeated company. Cautious corporate spending and weak consumer overhang the industry.

 

Alcoa announced earnings

            Not sure about AA, since aluminum production is more about energy cost. I intend to hold miners in general for long term, as long as inflation expectation remains high.

 

WaMu got equity

            Shares are diluted, but stocks rallied big anyways. Those who bet on bankruptcies gave up. Maybe time to identify some names for future bottom fishing, though the worst is yet to come.

 

Greenspan view housing stability ahead.

            This is very likely to be true. Not because of buyers, only lack of sellers. Consumers can’t hold much longer either unfortunately. We need at least some sort of rebound in the economy to keep us go further.

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-4-8 00:23 编辑 ]

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原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-8 00:21 发表

Alcoa announced earnings

            Not sure about AA, since aluminum production is more about energy cost. I intend to hold miners in general for long term, as long as inflation expectation remains high.

  

Greenspan view housing stability ahead.

            This is very likely to be true. Not because of buyers, only lack of sellers. Consumers can’t hold much longer either unfortunately. We need at least some sort of rebound in the economy to keep us go further.

 

For Aloca, sales beat expecation but earning didn't. Any thought?

 

Agree that "consumers cannot hold much longer", that's why I think next round sell off will be led by retailers, especially consumer discretionary.

[ 本帖最后由 还在发呆 于 2008-4-8 00:35 编辑 ]

jsl

The reason that people look at Aloca a lot is because it is a first observable for industrial demand. Sales beat is a good thing for sure, but poor earning/margin indicates a weakening trend. People will just try to find any hint for the other companies. Alcoa's earnings are always volatile.

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sales represents the demand for Aloca's product, while earning represents the difference between input (cost of the raw material) and output (product). my take away on this is that the still good sales number shows healthy demand from the rest of the industry, which means that the rest of the industry holds up well; while the weak earning simply reflects the rising price on raw materials.

 

 

jsl

接着灌

jsl

update

jsl

Ask yourself a few questions:

What is your commodity view for the next 6 month?

How do you think about GE's earning?

Will commercial real estate create more trouble for the troubled financials?

Is the Fed policy effective or will it be?

Which one posts the higher risk for the economy, asset delfation or commodity inflation?

How long do you think the deflation and the inflation will last?

Which stage is the credit crunch at?

Will consumer spending push the market further down?

Do you think the current consumer credit level is a big threat, why?

What is the worst senario for the economy by the end of 2008?

What do you think about the unemployment rate?

Will corporate spending, capx, goods orders, factory orders have a short term rebound?

Cobra

你以后打算把你的帖子怎么整？成系列还是只是临时玩玩？如果想成系列，那最好改个名字。

jsl

有心人自然会看的。有时间就随便说说，也不用太认真， 所以叫灌水吗。 以前有个人总是问我 "what is your market view today". I said "it is the same as what I had before, If I tell you a different view every a few days, you should not trust me at all." 阔兄， 你每天的update是不必要的。当然，你总觉得对大家的支持过意不去，但如果长期下去，有害无益。

CoolMax

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-7 20:21 发表 AMD scales down.             It is not surprising to have a bad news on a defeated company. Cautious corporate spending and weak consumer overha ...

 

格林斯潘说的，在俺们这个地方不成立。

四月在市场上的待售屋，是去年高峰期的150%。所以卖家增多了，而不是减少了。要知道，四月按往年是房屋销售季节刚刚开始。

jsl

Earning focus kicks in.

 

This time around, however, people are trying to infer the economic directions rather than the companies themselves. For sure, the firms in the center of the news will be volatile, but I view those as opportunities with proper hedge.

 

For Coolmax: Greenspan anticipated some housing stability early next year, not now. Thanks for participating.

jsl

对Cobra的大作点评一二，

the Qs:

From TA point of view, soon there will be a rebound for a shrugging shoulder. I can care less about whether it gaps up or down or not. From FA point of view, tech doesn't have a bright future as long as both corporate and consumer spending are in danger.

 

the commodities:

think about the following questions: what are the reasons for USD to be strong? What does it mean for inflation? What does it mean for oil, gold and agriculture? Are those going to react to the dollar in the same way? What are the reasons for the USD to stay weak? ... repeat the same follow up questions.....

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原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-15 23:49 发表 Earning focus kicks in.   This time around, however, people are trying to infer the economic directions rather than the companies themselves. For sure, the firms in the center of the ...

 

looks like this time even big money has no clue where the economy and hence the market will go. for financial, big banks keep reporting loss and write-down, but yesterday a couple of regional banks reported positive earning and lifted forecast. does that mean the grassroot level of the economy is still resilient? Bernanke might be surprised by this as a couple of months ago he predicted that many regional banks will go down. hopefully he is not as clueless as us.

jsl

Europe may soon be in trouble. I think people know where the economy is now but don't know where it will go. People are not optimistic but still have some wishful thinking.
I don't know which regional banks reported earnings, if you tell me, I can take a look at their earnings reports sometime.

The recent trend of foreclosure are voluntary, thus they are negative for banks but not terrible for consumers overall. If this goes on and on, it might start a vicious cycle which will be bad but is unlikely for now.

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follow this link on wsj.com

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120824292965415733.html

 

U.S. Bancorp Profit Dips

Bank, Others Trust
They Can Weather
Rise in Credit Losses

By DONNA KARDOS
April 16, 2008; Page C6

U.S. Bancorp reported a 3.5% drop in first-quarter net income amid an increase in its provision for credit losses.

But the bank, which has largely managed to avoid subprime-mortgage problems, said it will continue to prosper despite the weak economic environment.

Several other regional U.S. banks also reported earnings and expressed similar confidence they could withstand soaring credit losses.

U.S. Bancorp -- the Minneapolis parent of U.S. Bank with a presence in 24 states mostly in the West and Midwest -- said its latest results include $253 million in write-downs on structured-investment securities bought in the fourth quarter and a $492 million gain from its sale of shares as part of the March initial public offering of Visa Inc.

See earnings cheat sheets for large tech, health, banking and other companies.

Chief Executive Richard K. Davis said, "Our company's first-quarter results reflected the disciplined approach we have taken toward managing credit and operating risk, while prudently investing for growth." Mr. Davis has said U.S. Bancorp has very little vulnerability to the increasingly fragile commercial real-estate market.

The bank's credit-loss provisions surged to $485 million, double the prior quarter and nearly triple a year earlier, reflecting the housing slump in addition to the continued growth of the bank's consumer-loan portfolios.

Separately, M&T Bank Corp. posted a 15% increase in its first-quarter profit, as a gain related to the Visa IPO helped offset a rise in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic bank's credit-loss provision to $60 million from $27 million.

Chief Financial Officer Rene F. Jones said, "M&T's financial results for the first three months of this year demonstrate a certain resilience to the ongoing disarray in the financial markets." He noted continued growth in the commercial and commercial real-estate portfolios, as well as core deposit balances, are growing "at a healthy rate."

Amid the subprime-mortgage crisis, M&T in the fourth quarter wrote off nearly all of its collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime residential securities.

And in March, M&T dropped out of the federal student-loan program for the coming academic year, one of many to do so, adding uncertainty to the financial-aid arena at a time when students are poised to begin to line up borrowing.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee-based Marshall & Ilsley Corp. reported a 33% decline in its quarterly profit, as loan-loss provisions surged. Net income was $146.2 million, or 56 cents a share, compared with $216.8 million, or 83 cents a share, a year earlier.

--Kevin Kingsbury and John Flowers contributed to this article.

Write to Donna Kardos at donna.kardos@dowjones.com

[ 本帖最后由 还在发呆 于 2008-4-16 00:52 编辑 ]

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原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-16 00:45 发表 Europe may soon be in trouble. I think people know where the economy is now but don't know where it will go. People are not optimistic but still have some wishful thinking.I don't know which regional ...

 

Europe being in trouble will be a positive thing for U.S. politically and economically. too bad they are neither oil exporters nor pure agriculture importers.

jsl

Cobra post another bond article. 就多些灌水

Quite clearly the bond market says that the risk premium dropped in response to the BSC deal. I am trying to avoid using the word "bailout". 

The paragraph for the yield curve is partially correct. The steeper yield curve definitely helps financials. But a lot of the reason behind the normal yield curve is future inflation expectation. most of the time, it is positive, not always.

 

So, it is possible that the market was taking a breath after a nerve breaking first quarter. Claiming a economic bottom is kind of too early.

 

BTW, stock market leads corporate bonds in general. Libor, fed fund rate, etc are different.

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-4-16 01:13 编辑 ]

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原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-16 01:12 发表 Cobra post another bond article. 就多些灌水 Quite clearly the bond market says that the risk premium dropped in response to the BSC deal. I am trying to avoid using the word "bailout".  The par ...

 

if i understood correctly, corporate bonds reflect economy, while libor reflect the financial system. simply put, calling the end of financial crisis is smart, calling the bottom of the economy is too smart.

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-4-16 01:04 发表   Europe being in trouble will be a positive thing for U.S. politically and economically. too bad they are neither oil exporters nor pure agriculture importers.

I am not sure it is going to be good for U.S. economically. Right now, I would hope europe continue to spend.

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原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-16 01:25 发表 I am not sure it is going to be good for U.S. economically. Right now, I would hope europe continue to spend.

 

Interesting point. I was worried by dim consumer sentiment a while ago but after some rethinking I kind of discounted its importance.

 

I put the arguments in a separate thread.

[ 本帖最后由 还在发呆 于 2008-4-16 02:23 编辑 ]