SPX Notes 2009

xiaoniu

thanks bay.
how good is using option data to predict short term market move?
based on some TA signal, it's not very likely to see SPY to move to 91+ soon.
but we do see too much $ on put, to be killed by MM.

开小差

where is Bay LaoDa today?

bayliner1979

Too busy at errands.
Nevertheless, no change in prediction, thus no need to update.

where is Bay LaoDa today?
开小差 发表于 2009-7-13 22:21

benmao

laoda has sharp eye, ding ding ding!!!

benmao

i have closed my bull spread, wait and see bay laoda's suggestion on next month

happywacom

thanks

bayliner1979

Looks like a good prediction again.  

The market has been in 870--960 箱型猪市 for nearly 3 months.
Till July OE, still in the piggy case.

1.0.9 $BPSPX $BPCOMPQ golden cross today, but $BPINDU not confirmed.

0.0.3 the gap between $NYADV and $NYUPV is too big.  I don't believe the market can go up very high recently.   The most bullish case is to reach 95x to make a dual-head pattern on weekly chart.   A more likely case is Elliot wave's Expanding (Reverse Symmetrical) Corrective Triangle (counting from June 20 to now).

7.0.7 Expecting a drop tomorrow.

Well, June Quarter OE almost identical to June OE.   SPY closed at 92.0 +- 0.1.  

$BPCOMPQ stays cross above, but $BPINDU and $BPSPX stay unconfirmed.
Looks like a piggy market till July OE.
So far it seems that SPY likely closes at ~92 again at July OE.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-30 16:40

seabiscuit

Thanks, bayliner1979 !   哇，得了白化病的袋鼠呀？

新低手

1807# bayliner1979

xiaoxiaozhang

Oh, yeah. Drop like a rock!

Looks like a good prediction again.  

The market has been in 870--960 箱型猪市 for nearly 3 months.
Till July OE, still in the piggy case.

1.0.9 $BPSPX $BPCOMPQ golden cross today, but  ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-7-15 19:29

开小差

thx,ding

bolero

thanks

benmao

thanks bay laoda, please keep good work ....

Persistance

Thank you, Bay Laoda!

OrangeTea

bayliner1979

Unchanged opinion.  
Tomorrow SPY OE may close around ~92.5.

Also to all new frogs after I saw a post here: 晃动大的equity（比如3xETF, PUT, CALL)，有利MM操纵，是散户杀手。所以万万不能乱玩，更不可以全仓上。
PUT,CALL一定要有保护，控制风险，比如spread，strangle, straddle，否则早晚必中MM的陷阱，逃得了今天逃不了明天。

dara

Unchanged opinion.  
Tomorrow SPY OE may close around ~92.5.

Also to all new frogs after I saw a post here: 晃动大的equity（比如3xETF, PUT, CALL)，有利MM操纵，是散户杀手。所以万万不能乱玩，更不可以 ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-7-16 21:01

tomorrow would probably open low.
If open high, buy July put w/o hesitation

But if open low, it is not easy to trade.

benmao

thanks bay laoda, i will keep notes

soulvirus

开小差

thx,ding