SPX Notes 2009

phoenix

Thanks Bay and Q!

liblib123

每日必看贴。many thanks

like2swing

Thanks Bay and QQQ. This post becomes my "required reading" every day.

90ufo

my view is like this, for everything is expected, means (1) Vote pass (2) $BDI continue rising
then I expect a test of 875-880, then start abc down in which a=875-880 -> 840 (Monday), b=840->860  ...
QQQ 发表于 2009-2-6 20:21

QJ: the congress vote is postponed to Tuesday.  but Monday still has the potential mkt moving news : Geithner 12:30pm talk.

linlin

164# 90ufo

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123410527886060705.html?mod=article-outset-box

and http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123404707960860295.html?mod=testMod

spy2009

支持BAY老大和Q姐！

jilier

Thank you for sharing!

undeadrogue

My source is showing big dogs r selling into strength in these two days, especially yesterday. That doesnt mean the price will go south right away, but this up move is running out of steam, could make another climax run to squeeze out some more lilo bears and get better chips for short. I am adding short lilo by lilo, 30% in short on Friday close.

bayliner1979

今天的预测也对也不对：确实和12/9,12/10时的复杂走法较像，但走了个Doji，而不是shooting star (不过candlestick是可以组合的，doji + red marubozu就是shooting star，见Blending Candlesticks http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_cand)
这是短期牛市走法，即便是这样，pullback to 840也是expected.
如果是短期熊市走法，仍然认为780还是要去的。因为看了一下图，在整个长期熊市期间，过低的CPC确实后面都尾随大跌，包括熊市后期在内(即便假设现在已经是熊市后期,which I don't believe)。按Cobra的说法，这叫payback of low CPC。

早上开盘不久SPY上出了个长上影的phantom candle bar打到87，知道今天对熊熊不妙，母鸡一天。

不过这也说明了昨天SPY 77.5上的长下影的phantom bar最近多半是会去的。有一群鸟MM的单子放在那里等着。
Whether 77.5 is the mid-term bottom?  I am not sure now.  It is possible that #11 of http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=34832 is true.   But it is equally possible that 现在反弹越凶、将来跌得越惨。It is hard to say right now.

预计next Monday inside bar with shooting star shape, similar to 12/9/08.
Reason was posted above.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-6 19:25

oldfat

today's market is very confusing. i think the trend will become more clear tomorrow.

uni007

收到，老大。

开小差

thx

bayliner1979

Tomorrow likely another Doji or small bar candle (e.g., spinning top) around EMA(34).
The day after tomorrow retrace to EMA(13), then 830--840 area will be retested.
We will see what happens at that time to predict more.

today's market is very confusing. i think the trend will become more clear tomorrow.
oldfat 发表于 2009-2-9 19:07

whzdf

benmao

thanks bay

weigoodone01

OrangeTea

xiaoxiao08

Thanks Bay. visit here everyday.

hippo

Thanks Agent Smith Lao Da, very insightful...

Persistance

Thank you, Bay Lao Da!!!