productivity: so far, I havn't seen serious productivity damage. Other than financials, and other directly hit industries, companies had a good amount of cash in hand. This has helped to created a bizzare situation where sentiment and outlook are much worse than the economy might actually be. When Ben said that economy were stabilized, I laughed too, but I do give him the benefit of doubt.
Finally, why did I put up so much incoherent garbage? why today? When it comes to the risk high reward period, one need to tolerate hihger pressure. WIthout a good understanding of the potential drawdown and future economic outlook, it would be hard to swing trade. This is not a period that you want to cut loss if you missteped. It is a regime where you need to manage you amunition properly. If you agree with me and don't want to cut loss(BTW, I have no loss to cut), we need to know the likely worst senario in half a year horizon and potential holding time if trapped. Gurus have plenty good charts around, I won't add more. There is so much you can get from TA, your confidence need to come from fundamentals and good money managment skill now.
Is this a technical bounce , a bear rally or a reversal? no a reversal, probably most people agree on this. For the other two, it depends on your definition. This is what I think has happended.
First, we see serious slow down, oil kept going up due to inflation fear, weak dollar, seasonality and likely some short squeeze too. Long commodities and short the market, for a while, was a nobrainer.
Then, the Fed was getting tougher on inflation, weakness abroad helped dollar, slowdown translates to less demand, agriculture data put on the trigger. Now the mutli-year long stragegy is ready to be unwound.
Do I think the game is over? no, I am ready to be back into commodities but I don't necessarily short the market.
I originally thought the market will oscillate around 1300, now it seems to be set 20 lower. Let's wait and see.
狗仔卡
发表于 2008-7-3 12:02 AM
发表于 2008-7-3 07:27 AM
