the beauty of trend following

trueself · 发表于 2010-9-24 09:10 AM

angelafund 发表于 2010-9-24 11:08

very nice

npnt · 发表于 2010-9-24 11:18 AM

right on the money.

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-24 02:06 PM

Top gainers as of 24Sep2010

TNA 24% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
NFLX 22% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 20% (first buy 30Aug2010)
BIDU 12% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
ACOM 10% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
REE 9% (first buy pre-market 24Sep2010 --> small position, no biggie)
CMG 9% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
EBIX 9% (first buy market open 21Sep2010)
DGP 8% (first buy 25Aug2010)
GLD 4% (first buy 25Aug2010)
TGA 5% (first buy market open 21Sep2010 --> small position, no biggie)
GMCR 4% (first buy market open 09Sep2010, sold some 22Sep2010)
CRM 3% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)

cut loss

BORN -14% (no biggie, small position)
EGO -1% (keep only gld/dgp)

What is better than being right in stock market?

I see losers are starting to short NFLX and AMZN ... they will be run over ... I promise ya ...

npnt · 发表于 2010-9-24 10:25 PM

How could you tell NFLX and AMZN will run over for sure? Would you mind to shed some lights?

bokchoy888 · 发表于 2010-9-25 03:26 PM

Top gainers as of 24Sep2010

TNA 24% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
NFLX 22% (first buy intra-day ...
angelafund 发表于 2010-9-24 16:06

Hats off you, gone through you posts along with the spx chart, you are really sticking to your dicipline even during the mid Aug crazy stretch.

These statements make a lot sense to me:

"Clearly we are entering a bear phase. I have liquidated all my longs except GLD/DGP.

In bear market, I take breaks.

So I will not update this thread until the bull returns.

I will never miss a bull market, so once I am back, the bull is back.

This market followed through to the upside indicating a possible tradable rally ... I am getting back to the market, currently holding the following,

If this rally can hold, meaning I need to see my current buy continue to march forward ... I will add more positions ...

What we should care is not what the Friday's job number is or Sept is the worst month of the year. Listening to Pundits' prediction is a loser's game.

Today the market says big and loud, get back to the market and buy the best stocks !

you know my philosophy on stock market is always price/volume is your first indicator, everything else is secondary ... including economic numbers ...

Stock market is a discounting mechanism of the future, not the present ... price/vol are always ahead of macro economic indicators. You can talk a load of how bad the economic numbers are ... or you can show extreme enthusiasm on economic knowhows ... In the end ... you can't base on the economic information today to RELIABLY infer the market direction tomorrow ... The reason is SIMPLE. Stock market is always ahead.

Always react to the market, not predict the market. Always know what the market is doing and react accordingly.

It is important to understand the difference between a normal pull back and a trend change (aka topping out)

It takes fund mangers persistent selling to roil an uptrend ... are we there yet? no, we need more cards to come out of the deck to say this trend is about to change ...

"

bokchoy888 · 发表于 2010-9-25 07:09 PM

Continue to hold the following stocks, there is no reason to sell AAPL, BIDU, GIL and DNDN, pcln is ...
angelafund 发表于 2010-5-4 15:53

Question for you, Angelafund, as you stated on May 4th, you were holding full positions on these winners. How did you handle the May 6th crash? You just sat through it and prepared to accept whatever the fate brought to you?
As you said, you sold all on May 7th.

Would like to know your mental process during the day of May 6th. Thanks.

lionking819 · 发表于 2010-9-25 08:25 PM

angela, I saw a lot of your holding in IBD 100 list, is it your selection pool?

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-26 04:57 PM

本帖最后由 angelafund 于 2010-9-26 19:10 编辑

With Nasdaq 100 taking the lead and broadending growth leaders making the new highs, this rally could have legs

Market usually turns when it is least expected. When everyone was thinking market could turn ugly in the late August when S&P-500 hang dearly above the important 1040 support level, it followed though with conviction to the upside on Sept 1st.

Since September 1st, Nasdaq has run up 12%, followed by Russell 2000 11%, SP-500 and NYSE 9%; Dow Jones 8%. Nasdaq 100 is the strongest running up 15% with fund managers continue to pump money into the most liquid names. All major indices close above their corresponding Aug high, bolting the market to a solid intermediate uptrend.

Top notched growth stocks are running hot with big cap growth leaders, such as AAPL, BIDU, PCLN making all time highs. Leadership are broadening with participation from various industry group such as Leisure, retail, computer software, computer hardware, internet, telecom, construction machinery, fertilizer. Semi conductors are playing a catch up game while the financials are continue to labor. The negative divergence from the financials will eventually come back to haunt the market.

In Livermore's book, he often talks about Wall Street Suckers. One suckers' play is to short the high flyers in a bull market. In finance discussion board, I see people start to short NFLX, AMZN etc. If you do, you better think twice. The following stocks, which I own, have very big short interest. Those who short these are the ones being screwed to provide the fume to stocks' vicious price gains when the trend turns solidly higher. Don't short the high fliers, stupid!

Short interest:
EBIX: 40% (11 million out of 27 million float)
NFLX: 30% (12.5 million out of 40.8 million float)
ARUN: 29% (17.7 million out of 61.2 million float)
GMCR: 20% (22 million out of 108 million float)
CMG: 13% (3.9 million out of 30.2 million float)

Learn the market before you put up your trade.

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-27 07:50 AM

How could you tell NFLX and AMZN will run over for sure? Would you mind to shed some lights?
npnt 发表于 2010-9-25 00:25

when I say they will be run over ... i mean the shorts who went after nflx and amzn will be run over ... my statement is based on the historical patterns that shorting high fliers in face of a bull market is an extremely dangerous action ...

bokchoy888 · 发表于 2010-9-27 08:17 AM

angelafund, what's your take on the commodity stocks, such as anr bucy wlt? thx

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-27 04:35 PM

本帖最后由 angelafund 于 2010-9-27 18:41 编辑

Top gainers as of 24Sep2010

NFLX 25% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 23% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
REE 22% (first buy pre-market 24Sep2010 --> small position, no biggie)
ARUN 20% (first buy 30Aug2010)
BIDU 19% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
CMG 12% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
EBIX 10% (first buy market open 21Sep2010)
TGA 9% (first buy market open 21Sep2010 --> small position, no biggie)
ACOM 9% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
GMCR 7% (first buy market open 09Sep2010, sold some 22Sep2010)
DGP 8% (first buy 25Aug2010)
GLD 4% (first buy 25Aug2010)
CRM 2% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)

cut loss

BORN -14% (no biggie, small position)
EGO -1% (keep only gld/dgp)

What is better than being right in stock market?

the numbers speak for themselves ...

One of the rare attribute of a great trader is the ability to sit tight ... to let the stocks do their work ... to give them time to grow ... this is what I am doing now ... learn how to sit tight when you are right and let the profits run ...

my real time trades are given out at trader1688 dot com; looking for posts by fatdaddy ...

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-28 04:21 PM

本帖最后由 angelafund 于 2010-9-28 18:27 编辑

Top gainers as of 28Sep2010

TNA 27% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
NFLX 23% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 20% (first buy 30Aug2010)
REE 19% (first buy pre-market 24Sep2010 --> small position, no biggie)
BIDU 17% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
EBIX 14% (first buy market open 21Sep2010)
CMG 13% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
DGP 11% (first buy 25Aug2010)
TGA 9% (first buy market open 21Sep2010 --> small position, no biggie)
ACOM 9% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
GMCR 6% (first buy market open 09Sep2010, sold some 22Sep2010)
GLD 6% (first buy 25Aug2010)

sold
CRM 1% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010, sold on 28Sep2010)

cut loss

BORN -14% (no biggie, small position)
EGO -1% (keep only gld/dgp)

GMCR dropped after hour trading ... so this might be a cut tomorrow.

TOP CALLING is stupid ... this market is very resilient ...

gold is making new highs ... bad news == more money pumped into the market by fed ...

my real time trades are given out at trader1688 dot com; looking for posts by fatdaddy ...

bokchoy888 · 发表于 2010-9-29 01:36 PM

angelafund, still holding gmcr or plan to cut loss?

thx

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-29 02:36 PM

本帖最后由 angelafund 于 2010-9-29 16:43 编辑

Top gainers as of 29Sep2010

NFLX 30% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
TNA 29% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 19% (first buy 30Aug2010, 1st add 1Sep2010)
BIDU 19% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
EBIX 12% (first buy market open 21Sep2010)
CMG 12% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
DGP 11% (first buy 25Aug2010)
ACOM 8% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
GLD 6% (first buy 25Aug2010)
CRUS 3% (first buy intra-day 29Sep2010, add before market close)

sold
REE 9% (first buy pre-market 24Sep2010 --> small position, no biggie; final sale before close 29Sep2010)
TGA 4% (first buy market open 21Sep2010 --> small position, no biggie; final sale before close 29Sep2010)
CRM 1% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010, final sale on 28Sep2010; )

cut loss
BORN -14% (no biggie, small position)
GMCR -9% (first buy market open 09Sep2010, sold some 22Sep2010, final sale market open 29Sep2010)
EGO -1% (keep only gld/dgp)

Again TOP CALLING is stupid ...

Continue to hold the leadership stocks ... as more and more sectors participate the up move and indices are consolidating the recent run up ...

all my buys and sells are given in real time (or before the market open) in Angela Sisters in trader1688 dott comm

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-29 02:37 PM

angelafund, still holding gmcr or plan to cut loss?

thx
bokchoy888 发表于 2010-9-29 15:36

you can see my answers in gmcr in trader1688's thread, same title as hutong9

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-29 02:54 PM

A monster stock in the making --> ARUN

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-29 03:35 PM

angelafund · 发表于 2010-9-29 05:00 PM

Question for you, Angelafund, as you stated on May 4th, you were holding full positions on the ...
bokchoy888 发表于 2010-9-25 21:09

first of all, the biggest and best money is made by riding a growth stock in its entire expansion phase. I only do growth stocks ... so in my mind, what I want to do the least is to sell my winning stocks because of the market correction, if a shallow one occurs.

With that in my mind, I would normally at least hold some portion of the stocks in the start of the correction ... thinking what if the correction turns out to be a shallow one.

Secondly, no one knows the future ... so I have no idea how the market will correct in May. I can only make decisions once the cards start to come out ... this is what leads me to the final sell of my port after the flash crash ...

Hope this answers your question ...

bokchoy888 · 发表于 2010-9-29 05:59 PM

great thx, angelafund or fatdaddy or Dr $ or something something

Saw your posts under fatdaddy about gmcr.
As for May 6th, you did the right thing and sticked to the principle of trend following.
Good to learn from you and thx for the picks above.

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[原创] the beauty of trend following

TOP CALLING is stupid ...