★ 瞎子摸象：美股微观与宏观 ★

OrangeTea

早上俺都没勇气看股市了。。。

diaqqqq

Hi, 多吉

Talking about "being contrarian", if we do get the pullback today, what will be our target for the pullback? Currently the quite popular market view (could also be your view) is that the Market could pull back to 925-900 area then starts another leg up to cross 1000 in the next few weeks. So I am quite positive there will be tons of bulls showing up at 925-900 area to buy dips and most Bears will start to cover around that area too. Will it be this easy for both Bears and bulls this time?

I will bet some small funds on the slight possibility that the double-top we just witnessed could bring the market down to 850 area or even down to 800 area by August OE. The current open interest for August SPY 80 is strikingly high at 429,876. I might buy both out of the money PUTS and CALLS if SPY does pull back to 910 area, as I expect the next move (either up or down) could be another 80 points by August OE day.

Any input on this?

QQQQ tries making its 7th break-up triangle this morning, unfortunately the tip
of last triangle sits right in the middle of it for 1st time since this July rally, which
makes this triangle pa ...
多吉 发表于 2009-7-21 11:56

diaqqqq

The market still looks quite scary to the Bears. Will AAPL's earnings trigger another round of short covering? Will hedge a little bit here...

buctusa

Agree..............

QQQQ and AAPL are still strong............

The market still looks quite scary to the Bears. Will AAPL's earnings trigger another round of short covering? Will hedge a little bit here...
diaqqqq 发表于 2009-7-21 13:41

多吉

QQQQ下列三个点，构成了今天收缩三角的上沿：

38.07
38.01
37.99

如果市场是在有序retreat，那QQQQ就还应该去
碰一下37.85-37.88 to complete upper line。

否则，今明两天就会是争相逃命的一幅景象。。。

QQQQ现在是37.75...

多吉 发表于 2009-7-21 12:19 PM

Wow！It took my QQQQ short order @ 37.88

多吉

Agree..............

QQQQ and AAPL are still strong............

buctusa 发表于 2009-7-21 01:47 PM

I don't agree...

mtlu2

pls keep shorting, the bounce is weak.

145# 多吉

OTC

145# 多吉


Stop? dare not do so before AAPL ER.

Rilla

熊熊好像没有力量来，

dara

in Mr. Soft short at 24.72.

if Friday morning the price is higher I will buy PUT.

torontonian

nnd， 太牛了， 快扛不住了

buctusa

多吉, any updates?

QQQQ will be green for 10 Days?

多吉

Oops！new high at 38.1...

today's 3nd batch Qs short order got filled @ 38.08 (5%)，

I feel it's time to load up some QID/EDZ/SRS now as well.

buctusa

Followed! Thank you!

Oops！new high at 38.1...

today's 3nd batch Qs short order got filled @ 38.08 (5%)，

I feel it's time to load up some QID/EDZ/SRS now as well.


多吉 发表于 2009-7-21 15:29

dara

Oops！new high at 38.1...

today's 3nd batch Qs short order got filled @ 38.08 (5%)，

I feel it's time to load up some QID/EDZ/SRS now as well.


多吉 发表于 2009-7-21 15:29

I'd rather play individual stocks now, stock rotation happens everywhere, index may not drop at all.
Today Goog/apple/semi weak, but MSFT/CSCO/ORA strong. Tomorrow the former could get strong again.

today finance weak too, if finance goes up, market could push to 965+.

torontonian

服了， 九阳神功都不止， 厉害

soulvirus

偶觉得熊熊要完蛋 mm根本不给熊熊机会,直到...

多吉老大,爆一下你开了总资金多少%的空仓好吗?谢谢哈

多吉

do you mean you quit?

145# 多吉
mtlu2 发表于 2009-7-21 02:19 PM

nope！

the market is in the process of topping, feels a retreat is in order.

to that presumption, this week SP/DJI/NAZ would all be closed in red.

it's simply a dead cat bounce, the dip is starting from AAPL.

buctusa

Capital managment is critical for Bears now.....................

偶觉得熊熊要完蛋 mm根本不给熊熊机会,直到...

多吉老大,爆一下你开了总资金多少%的空仓好吗?谢谢哈
soulvirus 发表于 2009-7-21 15:46

dara

nope！

the market is in the process of topping, feels a retreat is in order.

to that presumption, this week SP/DJI/NAZ would all be closed in red.

it's simply a dead cat bounce, the dip i ...
多吉 发表于 2009-7-21 15:48

so far I have not seen Duo Da wrong once, let's see this time.

I have MSFT short and EBAY PUT now, wait to buy underdogs when market pull back.