SPX Notes 2009

李隆基

SPY860象斯大林格勒一样躺在MM前面！

QQQ

Look at SPY daily chart http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s139439402]&disp=P

There is a phantom long shadow at 77.5.
Within 5 trading days, typically wit ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-6 02:30

Bay, looks like it has more room up before take an initial abc down

benmao

spy could hit 90 ?

天真的冷酷

I think one more push up AH or monday morning. oh, my god. GS is pushed to 97.7 after hour....

bayliner1979

I think for short-term market, GS leads the market (biorjin is right).
For mid-term market, INDU leads the market.

So Cobra's firework theory could be true:   The bears should wait for the gap down day and let the low $CPC payback.

I think one more push up AH or monday morning. oh, my god. GS is pushed to 97.7 after hour....
天真的冷酷 发表于 2009-2-6 18:39

bayliner1979

I don't think so.

The difference between yesterday and 1/28 is that only the amount of CALLs exploded yesterday while PUTs only increased a little.
Today the amount of CALLs and PUTs keep growing strongly, in a more comparable amount.
Very much like 12/8/08.

So I guess next Monday SPX should look like an inside bar with shooting star shape.

Hi,  QQQ,   按照大千高手“捣乱”的说法， MM买了大量的PUT做保护， 意味着大盘要大涨啊。   我的理解对吗？
passer 发表于 2009-2-5 21:37

bayliner1979

今天大方向又错了，剩下的3天输赢率要对2.5才成了。

早上开盘不久SPY上出了个长上影的phantom candle bar打到87，知道今天对熊熊不妙，母鸡一天。

不过这也说明了昨天SPY 77.5上的长下影的phantom bar最近多半是会去的。有一群鸟MM的单子放在那里等着。
Whether 77.5 is the mid-term bottom?  I am not sure now.  It is possible that #11 of http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=34832 is true.   But it is equally possible that 现在反弹越凶、将来跌得越惨。It is hard to say right now.

预计next Monday inside bar with shooting star shape, similar to 12/9/08.
Reason was posted above.

今天大方向就错了，剩下的4天输赢率要过半才成了。

早晨一个gap down，就觉得不太对劲，和预期不符。
结了所有的PUTs，等gap fill以后买回来，现在还在水下呆着。

看去年9/12,9/26，判断今天应该收一个hangman在fib38.2=843左右。
http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=36100&page=4&authorid=2282
基本上就是这个意思了。

有HH已经说了，今天油、金、大盘、债全部涨得欢。
整体的投资的热钱就那么多，怎么今天就都往上蹦，没有板块流动了？哪儿变出来的钱啊？
还有Option又爆量了，CPC又新低，估计MM又买了大堆的便宜PUTs。
上面全是MM要花钱买的, 花的钱哪里来呢？估计是卖expensive calls给傻牛变出来的。Zero sum。
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-5 16:54

一片云

Thank you, Bay.  

pennbrook

bayliner1979

What's the initial abc down?  any wave chart?

From my set of TA indicators, next Monday the closing price will be lower than today's with nearly 100% chance.
Maybe the top price could be higher, but the closing price will be clearly lower (it could be seen by eyes, so not a Doji).

Bay, looks like it has more room up before take an initial abc down
QQQ 发表于 2009-2-6 17:12

jasmin256

Elephant

老大连续错两天的概率应该是很小的,既然已经发生了,下周肯定对.

QQQ

What's the initial abc down?  any wave chart?

From my set of TA indicators, next Monday the closing price will be lower than today's with nearly 100% chance.
Maybe the top price could be higher, b ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-6 20:06

my view is like this, for everything is expected, means (1) Vote pass (2) $BDI continue rising
then I expect a test of 875-880, then start abc down in which a=875-880 -> 840 (Monday), b=840->860 (Tuesday), c=860->840/830 (Wednesday), after that will re-evaluate the situation by that time.

it is also possible Monday direct down from here 868, means the abc becomes:
a=868 -> 840 (Monday), b=840->860 (Tuesday), c=860->840/830, then possible take a dive (new trend) after that

benmao

谢BAY老大,长见识呀:lol

weigoodone01

Persistance

Thanks QJ and Bay Lao Da so much!!!

live111

Bay and Sis Q, good market sense! Thanks for sharing.

benmao

老大们,有空多歇歇,不要太入股....

等周末歇好喝足,再来论股....:lol

rosyrosy

Thanks for updates and good discussions!

darth