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[原创] SPX Notes 2009

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发表于 2009-6-10 08:38 PM | 显示全部楼层


1533# bayliner1979 谢谢,喜欢小猪带口罩
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-6-11 05:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
$CPCE = 0.55 not good.
$CPC = 0.76 firework.

Compare 2.8.0 and 2.8.1, it seems that even if there could be a firework next week, a 20-point SPX drop will happen before the firework.

Another possibility: Today could be similar to 07/17/2007, 10/05/2007 or 10/11/2007.



Cobra's chart 2.3.4  MACD(10,200,1) reaches 0.297, same as last May mid-term top and Oct.2007 top.

I don't think the market is going up given the current status.
But the drops after Oct.2007 and last May were slow, and significant rebounds (retrace to at least Fibo 50) happened within 1 month after the tops.
In a nutshell, 会有一段猪市偏熊的日子。
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-10 17:35
52_F003.jpg
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发表于 2009-6-11 05:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-6-11 05:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
1543# leftright

谢谢


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发表于 2009-6-11 06:26 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-6-11 06:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thank you, Bay Laoda!!!
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发表于 2009-6-11 08:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks. Cute picture!
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发表于 2009-6-11 08:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
thx for sharing
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发表于 2009-6-11 08:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks
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发表于 2009-6-11 08:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
1542# bayliner1979


谢谢
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-6-15 04:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 bayliner1979 于 2009-6-15 18:19 编辑

Major Distribution Day today.
Normally MDD will come in pairs or triplets.

All previous 3 MDDs are singled out and interrupted.
I will guess this MDD is going to have a follow-up.

Hold the shorts at the close of the 2nd MDD (I guess this will be near the support line ~880) and hold all cash to wait for next chance.

Today likely is similar to 1/14/09.
Expect SPY OE close at ~92.


Cobra's chart 2.3.4  MACD(10,200,1) reaches 0.297, same as last May mid-term top and Oct.2007 top.

I don't think the market is going up given the current status.
But the drops after Oct.2007 and last May were slow, and significant rebounds (retrace to at least Fibo 50) happened within 1 month after the tops.
In a nutshell, 会有一段猪市偏熊的日子。
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-10 17:35
20_F007.jpg
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发表于 2009-6-15 05:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-6-15 06:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
thx. ding
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发表于 2009-6-15 06:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
thank
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发表于 2009-6-15 06:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks, agent smith

Major Distribution Day today.
Normally MDD will come in pairs or triplets.

All previous 3 MDDs are singled out and interrupted.
I will guess this MDD is going to have a follow-up.

Hold the sho ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-15 17:56
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发表于 2009-6-15 06:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-6-15 07:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 lite1067 于 2009-6-15 19:59 编辑

"Hold the shorts at the close of the 2nd MDD (I guess this will be near the support line ~880) and hold all cash to wait for next chance."


thanks, bay laoda.

do you mean "hold the shorts until the close of the 2nd MDD"?? If so, we are in the same boat :-)
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发表于 2009-6-15 08:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks, very good advice!
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发表于 2009-6-15 08:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
ding
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发表于 2009-6-15 09:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
1551# bayliner1979
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