SPX Notes 2009

dara

20109

speechless
QQQ 发表于 2009-6-4 18:34

Market is definitely close to TOP, but nobody knows what it could it, maybe 94x, or 96x, or 1000.
Look at finance leader stocks:

GS 150, (it diluted at least 20% since Sept2007, two second offering + Buff's 5B convertable preferred share (that is almost 10% dilute)), so it is already like 210 in Sept.207
JPM 35, at least two second offerings
MS/WFC/BAC maybe 3 or 4 second offerings.

I mean even we are in a super bull market, They do not have much room to go up.

soulvirus

这个位置的金融股是2050年的价钱哈

Market is definitely close to TOP, but nobody knows what it could it, maybe 94x, or 96x, or 1000.
Look at finance leader stocks:

GS 150, (it diluted at least 20% since Sept2007, two second off ...
dara 发表于 2009-6-4 19:01

soulvirus

说老实话,股市到现在都疯了,谁还有理性?o8?漫天的媒体谎言?buy dip一定赚,垃圾股上天. 你敢重仓short short看.和疯狂的牛牛没话讲,buy dip是唯一道理.至于哪天会掉下来,谁care.

Market is definitely close to TOP, but nobody knows what it could it, maybe 94x, or 96x, or 1000.
Look at finance leader stocks:

GS 150, (it diluted at least 20% since Sept2007, two second off ...
dara 发表于 2009-6-4 19:01

dara

说老实话,股市到现在都疯了,谁还有理性?o8?漫天的媒体谎言?buy dip一定赚,垃圾股上天. 你敢重仓short short看.和疯狂的牛牛没话讲,buy dip是唯一道理.至于哪天会掉下来,谁care.



soulvirus 发表于 2009-6-4 19:12

I know.

In 2000, it was much more 疯 than right now. At that time, you know a company did not worth that much, but it just went higher and higher. A company with 10M annual revenue can get 10B market cap right now as long as it claimed it's a B2B, Internet, networking, FiberOptical or any other buzz company.

The best way is DT.

If you hold overnight, you could get trapped the next day.

colderdown

1479# QQQ

Thanks. My target is $72

小咪

1475# bayliner1979 谢谢

开小差

thx. ding

bayliner1979

双头、新高952都完成了，只是955的目标还未达到。
今天已是第五天test BB upper line，预计6月即使不大跌，至少会test BB bottom line。

今天和7/19/2007协调一致，下面的两个月，是像去年6,7月份那样盘整，还是7/19以后的大跌，看MM咋想了。
反正到BB bottomline时做strangle和straddle是不会错滴。



估计spy OE收在90左右，中期周线做一个小头肩顶，head ~ 955, neck line ~ 875, target ~ 790符合前面的预期。

双头在望。等新高。
和2007年7月像个十足。
最牛的走法是在900--950之间再盘一个月，96x到中期顶。
做near ATM的OTM bear spread；烧99左右的OTM call应该是比较安全的。

bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-4 17:39

谷米

1488# bayliner1979


贝老大，你这个模式识别是靠肉眼还是机器？

bayliner1979

Moreover, today VIX 小红棒棒，SPY/QQQQ/IWM 黒棒棒，中短期reversal的双保险。

Cobra's SPY,QQQQ 60-min, 30-min charts上，第一次真正冒出了见顶必需的negative divergences。

bayliner1979

肉眼 w/ a priori pattern looking up.

1488# bayliner1979


贝老大，你这个模式识别是靠肉眼还是机器？
谷米 发表于 2009-6-5 17:08

谷米

1491# bayliner1979


你的眼神和急性可真好，整个一台电脑。佩服了。

谷米

1490# bayliner1979


被你这么一确认，俺下周都想maigin做空

Persistance

Thank you, Bay Laoda!  Follow your top call today, loading 15% ST puts!

bayliner1979

I think, before this OE, ATM bear spread is better than naked PUTs.

Thank you, Bay Laoda!  Follow your top call today, loading 15% ST puts!
Persistance 发表于 2009-6-5 18:47

QQQ

Bay, there is last chance to see 955-975 early next week, I see the posibility now, even it is not too high, but posibility exist.

sinnet

Bay, there is last chance to see 955-975 early next week, I see the posibility now, even it is not too high, but posibility exist.
QQQ 发表于 2009-6-5 20:18

so after that, will the market go south?

lostlamb98

I looked at the daily chart of SPY.  It is the fourth day.  Can you please explain which chart are you looking at?

双头、新高952都完成了，只是955的目标还未达到。
今天已是第五天test BB upper line，预计6月即使不大跌，至少会test BB bottom line。

今天和7/19/2007协调一致，下面的两个月，是像去年6,7月份那样盘整，还是 ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-5 16:55

bayliner1979

I think next 2 weeks would be similar to early January 2002 or early December 2001.
Finally we will see SPX touches daily BB bottomline (~875 the support line) since this March.
SPY OE close is around 90.

It may have another up leg after OE, but may not.
The post-911 bear market rally lasted for 3 months and 1 week.
This rally is comparable to that one already.  If another up leg after OE, then this rally is even bigger than the very long bull market rally happened in March 2007.

(if next Monday it reaches 97x, i would guess it repeats 12/2/2002's bull climax run, won't last for 1 day and it will come back to 950 before close).

Bay, there is last chance to see 955-975 early next week, I see the posibility now, even it is not too high, but posibility exist.
QQQ 发表于 2009-6-5 20:18

bayliner1979

Sorry, typo.

should be "今天和7/19/2007协调一致，下面的两个月，是像2007年6,7月份那样盘整，还是7/19以后的大跌，看MM咋想了。"

2007 summer的跌法(for current version, 5 weeks to 770)，和2002年初的跌法(for current version, 7 weeks to weekly BB bottom line 770)，算出来是一样的。

I looked at the daily chart of SPY.  It is the fourth day.  Can you please explain which chart are you looking at?


lostlamb98 发表于 2009-6-5 21:39