SPX Notes 2009

bayliner1979

read more carefully, it is about year 2007, not 2008.

so bay laoda is expecting the June 2008 OE will be repeated this time?
benmao 发表于 2009-6-2 22:28

soulvirus

谢谢agent smith

benmao

bear stern went under around march 2008, then mtk had 2 month rally and everyone said the worst is over until June OE and i guess the delta neutral was broken. lao da may have better pattern matching skill than me ;-)

bayliner1979

08不能和07比。07年3月14日开始的牛市rally，一直last到7月13日。

lake3peat

thanks!

daowei

Appreciated!

lite1067

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=51215&page=14&authorid=8228

最近JPM和BAC大量在发行NOTES,LINK到S&P都是以917－920为发行基准指数。其中JPM今天登记的2009年12月到期半年期的NOTE就是以920为基准。 ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-2 20:56

underwriters of such notes do dynamically hedging and rebalance on regularly basis... so the reference point (i.e. 920) is just today's market price after a mark-up.

bayliner1979

从daily chart and 15-min chart看，今天重复5/21/09。

预计明天小跌，后天反弹做双头。

昨天、今天非常像7/12/07, 7/13/07。
猪市一个月后突破新高后的盘整。

如果重复7/07到1/08的走法，SPX调整180点正是760左右，是head-shoulder bottom's right shoulder.
以后还会有新高突破1000。而且年底正好在 ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-2 16:17

buctusa

Bears will be killed soon???

bayliner1979

No, 抢跑的bear要被aim and shoot两天。

牛现在是越来越弱了，5月初那次higher high，呆了快两个星期才跌破old high，6月初这次higher high，才呆了两天就到5月21日了。双头以后牛就得歇一阵子了。

Bears will be killed soon???
buctusa 发表于 2009-6-3 16:23

rightonmoney

ding

开小差

thx.ding

lake3peat

thanks!

Persistance

Thank you, Bay Laoda!!!  Waiting for the  last push of bulls。

bayliner1979

双头在望。等新高。
和2007年7月像个十足。
最牛的走法是在900--950之间再盘一个月，96x到中期顶。
做near ATM的OTM bear spread；烧99左右的OTM call应该是比较安全的。

dara

双头在望。等新高。
和2007年7月像个十足。
最牛的走法是在900--950之间再盘一个月，96x到中期顶。
做near ATM的OTM bear spread；烧99左右的OTM call应该是比较安全的。

bayliner1979 发表于 2009-6-4 17:39

chart very similar, but not sure if it will run the same as 07/2007.

Very boring recently,  Before mid March 2009, most of finance stocks   up and down 10%+ almost every day, now it is even hard to get 5% change.

QQQ

speechless

soulvirus

谢谢Q姐.再请教一下,你怎么看油油和煤?偶感觉就像去年油120那个时候,还可以继续冲一下,然后paji下来.一是油价太高危害复苏,二是美元不太可能就这样垮下去.

20109

speechless
QQQ 发表于 2009-6-4 18:34

QQQ

GS today upgrade OIL to 85 target
1 year ago today, 6/4/2008 OIL at 146, GS upgraded it to 170.
so believe or not believe.

coal, Solar, Natgas are following OIL

soulvirus

偶不知道该不该信GS.

你上周叫偶们不要乱交易,站错队后果严重.这一周偶出了减少舱位以外都没加仓.看清楚再说.非常感谢Q姐哈

GS today upgrade OIL to 85 target
1 year ago today, 6/4/2008 OIL at 146, GS upgraded it to 170.
so believe or not believe.

coal, Solar, Natgas are following OIL
QQQ 发表于 2009-6-4 18:44