找回密码
 注册
搜索
楼主: cookies

[原创] 诸位还真以为印钞机能印出一个大牛市来?

[复制链接]
 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-9 10:03 AM | 显示全部楼层


本帖最后由 cookies 于 2010-1-9 09:05 编辑

For short term and Swing-trade, I would strongly recommend Cobra's ST signal, who current does have "LONG" signal with stop-loss of Dec 31st low, this might be much easier to follow than the FA discussion above, which might be harder to trade on.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 10:57 AM | 显示全部楼层
今年第一周只有67BILLION 拍卖, 还不能说明什么.   

下一周是将近160BILLION的拍卖. 日本政府的债卷拍卖也在驴打滚的上.  仔细看着.
cookies 发表于 2010-1-9 08:03



Let's see next week.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 10:59 AM | 显示全部楼层
I only speak for what I believe and I invest accordingly.  I made the call based on the following information:

1) Fed has turned off the tap and it is reducing it, actually. The liquidity pumpe ...
cookies 发表于 2010-1-9 08:31


Thanks for your view although I may or may not agree with what you said.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 12:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
That's what I am not understanding just how much those foreign country can buy year after year? when will the tipping point occur?
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 01:20 PM | 显示全部楼层
多谢您的凉水。
大家都有点太牛了。
连coolmax老大都已经正式长期up.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-9 02:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
多谢您的凉水。
大家都有点太牛了。
连coolmax老大都已经正式长期up.
quickcow 发表于 2010-1-9 12:20


Currently, the market is saying that I am wrong, at least till now.

The market is always right.

I only state some basic facts which I think most of people are aware of it already..   

So don't use it as your trading basis, please at least refer to Cobra's ST signal if you want to trade
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 02:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
来点凉水,不错!
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 02:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
多谢您的凉水。
大家都有点太牛了。
连coolmax老大都已经正式长期up.
quickcow 发表于 2010-1-9 12:20


Exactly!
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 04:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
这还是个问题吗?难道从三月到现在还不算是个大牛市?
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 07:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ypm968 于 2010-1-9 18:16 编辑

"no-foreign bidders show up in the last week of Dec 上千亿美元的拍卖 (120BILLION), that is what I heard.  (WS called it "conspiracy not showing up together")"

What you heard was not the fact!

As a matter of fact, T-bill auctions were very successful this week. Don't forget the retail investors. They were hurt badly during this bear market, many of them exited stock market and put their money into bond funds. We, hutongers are active traders, but most retail investors still believe in "BUY AND HOLD", I feel sorry for them.  Last week, ceo of an online stock brokerage firm (Charles Schwab or td-ameritrade, I forgot) appeared on CNBC, said trading volume for 2009 only increased 2% over 2008. So you get the idea. I think that is the key reason why this market still in up trend. The MMs set up a big trap and waiting for "meat" to come, but so far the retail investors are not coming back. 俺希望最后不要演变成“偷鸡不成反蚀把米”。

Treasury Auction Result for 12/28/2009

The U.S. Treasury Department auctioned the following Treasury securities today.

13-week bill: $28 billion (last week $30 billion)
Primary Dealer: $17.95 billion
Indirect Bidder: $2.66 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 9.5% (last week 20.1%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 3.39 (last week 3.28)
Investment Rate: 0.112% (last week 0.071%)
High Rate: 0.110% (allotted at high: 79.75%)
26-week bill: $29 billion (last week $31 billion)
Primary Dealer: $10.95 billion
Indirect Bidder: $15.50 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 53.4% (last week 68.3%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 3.57 (last week 3.56)
Investment Rate: 0.203% (last week 0.173%)
High Rate: 0.200% (allotted at high: 40.81%)
2-year note (912828ML1): $44 billion
Primary Dealer: $19.95 billion
Indirect Bidder: $15.18 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 34.5% (last month 44%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 2.91 (last month 3.16)
Interest Rate: 1% (last month 0.750%)
High Yield: 1.089% (allotted at high: 59.68%) (last month high yield 0.802%)

Treasury Auction Result for 12/29/2009

The U.S. Treasury Department auctioned the following Treasury securities today.

4-week bill: $23 billion (last week $28 billion)
Primary Dealer: $8.31 billion
Indirect Bidder: $12.75 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 55.4% (last week 60.5%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 3.95 (last week 4.08)
Investment Rate: 0.010% (last week 0.005%)
High Rate: 0.010% (allotted at high: 12.36%)
In addition, SOMA* purchased $6.29 billion 4-week bill.
5-year note (912828ME7): $42 billion (last month $42 billion)
Primary Dealer: $18.00 billion
Indirect Bidder: $18.44 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 43.9% (last month 60.7%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 2.59 (last month 2.81)
Interest Rate: 2.625% (last month 2.125%)
High Yield: 2.665% (allotted at high: 31.16%) (last month high yield 2.175%)
In addition, SOMA* purchased $1.24 billion 5-year note.
Total for the week so far: $166 billion
Bills: $80 billion
Notes: $86 billion
Total for December 2009 so far: $593 billion
Bills: $433 billion
Notes and bonds: $160 billion
Additional purchase by SOMA* for December 2009 so far: $27.658 billion
Bills: $24.72 billion
Notes and bonds: $2.938 billion

Treasury Auction Result for 12/30/2009

The U.S. Treasury Department auctioned the following Treasury securities today.

36-day CMB: $5 billion (under SFP*, for use by the Federal Reserve)
Primary Dealer: $3.96 billion
Indirect Bidder: $1.03 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 20.6%
Bid to Cover Ratio: 6.66
Investment Rate: 0%
High Rate: 0% (allotted at high: 29.83%)
7-year note (912828MD9): $32 billion (last month $32 billion)
Primary Dealer: $15.56 billion
Indirect Bidder: $14.27 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 44.6% (last month 62.4%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 2.72 (last month 2.76)
Interest Rate: 3.250% (last month 2.750%)
High Yield: 3.345% (allotted at high: 55.69%) (last month high yield 2.835%)
In addition, SOMA* purchased $948 million 7-year note.
Total for the week so far: $203 billion
Bills: $85 billion
Notes: $118 billion
Total for December 2009: $630 billion
Bills: $438 billion
Notes and bonds: $192 billion
Additional purchase by SOMA* for December 2009 so far: $28.606 billion
Bills: $24.72 billion
Notes and bonds: $3.886 billion



Treasury Auction Result for 1/5/2010

The U.S. Treasury Department auctioned the following Treasury securities today.

4-week bill: $16 billion (last week $23 billion; week before last $28 billion)
Primary Dealer: $6.68 billion
Indirect Bidder: $8.68 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 54.3% (last week 55.4%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 5.50 (last week 3.95)
Investment Rate: 0.025% (last week 0.010%)
High Rate: 0.025% (allotted at high: 85.42%)
In addition, SOMA* purchased $2.42 billion 4-week bill.
Total for the week so far: $67 billion
Bills: $67 billion
Total for January 2010 so far: $67 billion
Bills: $67 billion
Additional purchase by SOMA* for January 2010 so far: $2.42 billion
Bills: $2.42 billion
* For details, scroll down to the bottom of page.
at 10:15 AM 0 COMMENTS
Labels: daily, Treasury Auction Result
MONDAY, JANUARY 4, 2010
Treasury Auction Result for 1/4/2010

The U.S. Treasury Department auctioned the following Treasury securities today.

13-week bill: $25 billion (last week $28 billion)
Primary Dealer: $11.58 billion
Indirect Bidder: $10.03 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 40.1% (last week 9.5%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 4.34 (last week 3.39)
Investment Rate: 0.081% (last week 0.112%)
High Rate: 0.080% (allotted at high: 32.27%)
26-week bill: $26 billion (last week $29 billion)
Primary Dealer: $7.58 billion
Indirect Bidder: $15.43 billion
Indirect Bidder Percentage: 59.3% (last week 53.4%)
Bid to Cover Ratio: 4.20 (last week 3.57)
Investment Rate: 0.183% (last week 0.203%)
High Rate: 0.180% (allotted at high: 53.87%)
Total for the week so far: $51 billion
Bills: $51 billion
Total for January 2010 so far: $51 billion
Bills: $51 billion
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-9 07:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
"no-foreign bidders show up in the last week of Dec 上千亿美元的拍卖 (120BILLION), that is what I heard.  (WS called it "conspiracy not showing up together")"

What you heard was not the fact!

A ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-1-9 18:10


多加了一个" - ", 意思就完全相反了?.   I tried to say: no foreign central bank showing up in the last week of Dec bond auction.

In theory, then all these last week of Dec 一千二百亿 bonds must be absorbed from non-government or 民间. 牛呀, 没想到美国和日本都是藏富于民呀, 连俺都是两周才发一次工资...这是每周老百姓都能拿出上千亿的储蓄买国库券.  

我的研究结果是:机构都在减持债卷, 唯一的例外是中长期T notes 和一些短期的 bond. 但这些增持的金额跟减少的比: 不如一毛

至于像这些什么bid-cover ratio, 大概看看吧, 但也比较扯了.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 09:03 PM | 显示全部楼层
提示: 该帖被管理员或版主屏蔽
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-9 09:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
提示: 该帖被管理员或版主屏蔽
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 09:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
行了,打住,你来我往各一下,算是扯平,都不要骂了,否则俺关了介个贴了。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 09:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
“美国最终会毁灭于滥用霸权和过于贪婪,内部先纷争起来,这时再加上外来强权的侵蚀?“

以上观点形容中国的现状比较恰当。



:lol
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-9 09:57 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-10 02:19 AM | 显示全部楼层
没看懂 .
真实价值未必上涨,
但印抄机开动后,帐面就会很好看,就可以宣传" 欣欣向荣"了.
(往往公司内部会有个财报针对真实价值计算的.这个才是真正的状况. )
偶认为,快速的通货膨胀总会制造暴富的神话!

偶关心的是, 对比真实价值和通货膨胀系数,涨多少才是正常的.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2010-1-10 06:10 AM | 显示全部楼层
行了,打住,你来我往各一下,算是扯平,都不要骂了,否则俺关了介个贴了。
Cobra 发表于 2010-1-9 20:24


老蛇说的对,  我向YPM先道歉了. 言语冲动, 海涵.   (看了一下原来的贴子, 可能他误会我原来说的"bid-cover-ratio 扯"的意思了, 我只是想说这个数值不能太当真, 不是真对YPM本人的)
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-10 01:55 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 joep 于 2010-1-10 12:58 编辑
老蛇说的对,  我向YPM先道歉了. 言语冲动, 海涵.   (看了一下原来的贴子, 可能他误会我原来说的"bid-cover-ratio 扯"的意思了, 我只是想说这个数值不能太当真, 不是真对YPM本人的)
cookies 发表于 2010-1-10 05:10


I take all published data at their face values and make investment desicions after comparing them against their historical values. I do not believe that those produce these data will intentionally produce false ones, i.e., intentionally not follow predefined methodologies and definitions of the data. If they do so, they put their jobs at risk.
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

发表于 2010-1-10 03:35 PM | 显示全部楼层
来句废话:根据FA做长线可以, 做TRADER可能裤子都会输掉。。。
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

手机版|小黑屋|www.hutong9.net

GMT-5, 2025-7-27 01:29 PM , Processed in 0.045657 second(s), 14 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.5

© 2001-2024 Discuz! Team.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表