05/22/2009 白天灌水

colderdown

115# Cobra

That's why I said inflation depression is better than deflation if you owe a lot of money.

goodness

115# Cobra

That's why I said inflation depression is better than deflation if you own a lot of money.
colderdown 发表于 2009-5-22 11:56

滞胀是很不好的。民不聊生。

happyface

Cobra , 你说你在加拿大我都有点沾沾自喜了,觉得挨一大牛人这么近.

biaoji

120# 新低手


收到! 谢谢指点!

amateur_idiot

粥沫鱼块

逆水之舟

here

Cobra

大家记得有空多去外汇和商品灌水啊。看把winwise给急的，呵呵。

contr

115# Cobra

That's why I said inflation depression is better than deflation if you own a lot of money.
colderdown 发表于 2009-5-22 11:56

Do you mean owning cash? Thanks.

Cobra

Many reporters, politicians and analysts have stated the worst is over and there is no chance of a depression at this point in time…,however, here are a list of events that may be ahead of us…

While I do not envision an “Armageddon”, I do envision a long, extended and deep recession…

-  The downgrade of the credit rating of the United States and/or a member of the European Union.

Link to Bill Gross's statement on the United States Credit Rating

-   A financial crisis in the commercial mortgage and real estate market.

Bloomberg Article on Commercial Mortgage Market

-  A lack of demand in buying US Debt.

Bloomberg article on bond market

-  Rising out of control unemployment

Forbes article on unemployment

-  The rising instability in certain countries in key geographic areas such as Pakistan…

Article about Pakistan

-  A large US state, such as California, completely running out of money and insolvent…

New York Times article on California

-  The bankruptcies of very large companies having a deeper effect then anticipated…

Businessweek article on the effects of a General Motors bankruptcy 

-  Rising energy prices to go with unemployment…

Article on rising energy prices

Posted by Michael Vadon at 10:49 AM

freefly

Cobra , 你说你在加拿大我都有点沾沾自喜了,觉得挨一大牛人这么近.
happyface 发表于 2009-5-22 12:01

是呀，都喝安大略的湖水。

colderdown

128# contr


Sorry, typo. I mean "owe".

Cobra

30 Year Yield:  Market forces want higher yields even as the Fed is trying to work 30 year mortgages down to "a target" of 4.25% to 4.5%.   The Fed's buying for the sole purpose of driving rates down, makes this an "interfered-with or manipulated" market.   As the Fed tries to drive down rates to below 4.5%, they are creating a bond bubble that will have a bad ending.  *** On April 29th, we started mentioning the probability that the 30 year yields would move up to 41.45.  On Friday, May 8th., 41.45 was hit on a spike up that took us even higher with a closing of 42.61. 

Yesterday, the 30 year yields jumped up again and closed at 43.13.  This was above both long term resistance levels.  The Fed still has over 250 billion to use in trying to keep yields and mortgages down ... we wish you luck, Ben.

(Since launching its bond-purchase program in late March, the Fed has bought more than $101 billion in Treasuries. The Fed is expected to buy up to $300 billion in bonds before the end of September.)

colderdown

122# goodness

It's fine. Spain and UK all lossed their powers. But they are not a bad place to live, so does US.

contr

是呀，都喝安大略的湖水。
freefly 发表于 2009-5-22 12:11

I heard the drinking water is from Lake Superior?

livein

Cobra, I am so happy you are in Canada. Are you in Toronto? There is a Chinese party "Date with the Spring" on this weekend. Are you going to be there?

contr

128# contr


Sorry, typo. I mean "owe".
colderdown 发表于 2009-5-22 12:11

Thanks. Seems I have to find a safe way to park my cash

usami

今天CPC只有0.65，疯了。
Cobra 发表于 2009-5-22 10:52

now it's 0.71.....

noname6688

大家记得有空多去外汇和商品灌水啊。看把winwise给急的，呵呵。
Cobra 发表于 2009-5-22 12:07

Cobra

Cobra, I am so happy you are in Canada. Are you in Toronto? There is a Chinese party "Date with the Spring" on this weekend. Are you going to be there?
livein 发表于 2009-5-22 12:16

Not in Toronto. But thanks.

Cobra

now it's 0.71.....
usami 发表于 2009-5-22 12:17

今天的CPC可能不说明啥问题。不过收盘在0.7到0.8之间的话，下周还是有可能要放焰火，虽然俺猜几率应该低一些。