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发表于 2012-7-12 04:11 PM
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本帖最后由 snowrider 于 2012-7-12 04:11 PM 编辑
No trade for medium- and long-term position today. The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:
Long Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- SPY 35% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11)
- Cash 40%
Medium Term - Small troop stock holding: None
The market opened right below yesterday's low (a critical point) and triggered more selling pressue to set a new weekly low. It found a support and started bouncing back from today's low at another critical point. Today's low was critical because:
1. It hit the trend line of a new up channel (06/19, 07/03, 06/25), and
2. It hit another fib area 0.382 (06/04, 06/19)
The candlestick was another pin with a medium size lower shadow. The chart shows that these two days the bulls have been trying to find a solid ground to stand against, but they got defeated in evening session everyday. It traps more and more small bulls on the way down in this kind of slow motion downward movement. We DO NOT want to see another gap down tomorrow because it could trigger a collapse!
Wave count (bullise alternative wave count):
06/19/2012's high = [A]
06/25/2012's low = [B].A
07/03's high = [B].B
Today's low = [B].c -> Did it complete the wave-[B]? If so, it must hold!
(Note that this scenario becomes invalid if the market shows a 5-wave down movement.)
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狗仔卡
发表于 2012-7-12 11:53 AM
发表于 2012-7-12 01:22 PM
