灌水贴

jsl

waited for another day.
Again biased thoughts. Not for bulls or bears under 18
TLT jumped. Because of oil drop? probably not. Be ahead of the curve to hedge market drop? likely
There seems to be no more worry to climb.
Many people are talking about climax run. Either this is a long run or there won't be any?

I looked at some trends of economic indicators, they all seem to be close to the worst level. People might be waiting for some good news out. Should we take that as good or bad? dangerous game!

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-16 00:54 发表 waited for another day.Again biased thoughts. Not for bulls or bears under 18TLT jumped. Because of oil drop? probably not. Be ahead of the curve to hedge market drop? likelyThere seems to be no more ...

 

Some bullish bias to neutralize.

 

TLT jumped to lower the yeild to match the edging-down inflation.

 

In a bull market, the up trend will be steady, no climax run, neither big drop.

 

It well could be that MMs just hold the market here waiting for good news, provided they have pocket deep enough to stomach all the selling-off. It is not mission impossible as Fed stands behind MMs, and money printer stands behind the Fed. 

jsl

又等了一天，看到早上跌，知道下午又要杀回来，就罢手了。但是SDS扑转正，有了hedge，心里舒服了些。下周找机会写一堆扑靠。

 

“If's about money flow between different asset class. When bond yield goes up
, people invest in bonds may suffer and want to move money out of bonds and
put into stokcs. This could boost equity market return.”

 

This part doesn't sound right. Maybe a long term or short term question.

 

desertz's post make more sense to me.

 

老青蛙好像也有些耐不住了

 

 

jsl

Financial dropped in anticipation of a long (mild) recession.

 

I am surprised to see that the XLF haven't gone back to 28-29 range

 

I don't think the sector is out of the woods yet. Without a major cash flow source(mortgage), it takes time to recover.

 

I don't think the worst will be much worse

 

I will be a buyer in the future

 

I have XLF at cost of 27, sold 29 call at a premium of 3. Will rewrite call if it goes up after a month or two, will write puts if it goes lower in the future.

jsl

关于油价，

if you have a car can run 30 mpg, and annual mileage 30k, then every 1 dallor rise on the gas, cost you $1000 more a year. Is it a big deal? doesn't sound too bad, so there is more room for oil to go up. However, this is the immediate impact. Since the budget doesn't come from nowhere, other sectors such as retail are going to face more and more pressure. If unemployment rate goes up more and stays high, then ....  Currently, it is the short term momentum hasn't met long term balance force. When that happens, we are going to see the real difficulty.

jsl

关于S&P

 

Because the 200ma and 400ma are so close, it has to take plenty of bullish sentiment to get where it is now. If it has a chance to stay here longer, there is no reason why not to challenge 400ma. I believed for a month now, that the current rally was the result of risk reduction, as the fundamentals still need time to show its true direction. The market is overheating. The question is whether it is in the early stage.

jsl

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-18 18:07 发表 关于S&P   Because the 200ma and 400ma are so close, it has to take plenty of bullish sentiment to get where it is now. If it has a chance to stay here longer, there is no reason why not to chal ...

 

S&P is so eager to find that 400ma and even prepares to break out to 1450.  I am sweating....

jsl

I don't think the close of today is very bearish. We have to wait for more evidence.

 

我今天灌水太多，深有所悔，就此立下毒誓：

 

如果这周从6AM-6PM之间再灌水或潜水，各位帐户缩水15%。

 

 

oldfrog

小白龙，建议封了这个叫ＪＳＬ的ＩＤ，已决后患．

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-19 23:24 发表 I don't think the close of today is very bearish. We have to wait for more evidence.   我今天灌水太多，深有所悔，就此立下毒誓：   如果这周从6AM-6PM之间再灌水或潜水，各位帐户缩水15%。 &n ...

还在发呆

原帖由 oldfrog 于 2008-5-19 23:27 发表 小白龙，建议封了这个叫ＪＳＬ的ＩＤ，已决后患．

 

co-建议

大泡泡

:(133): :(133):

还在发呆

是不是Jsl在潜水？我的账号在缩水-ing...

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-20 12:16 发表 是不是Jsl在潜水？我的账号在缩水-ing...

 

我可是爱人胜爱己。今天严格遵守诺言。

 

Midterm volatility 还没显现出来，还需要一个小回合。正在考虑如何应对。

此番南巡，应该是走小路，再横盘，大致 如 #5 所示 （当然，时间和空间都已经错位了）

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-20 22:11 发表   我可是爱人胜爱己。今天严格遵守诺言。   Midterm volatility 还没显现出来，还需要一个小回合。正在考虑如何应对。此番南巡，应该是走小路，再横盘，大致 如 #5 所示 （当然，时间和空间都已经错 ...

 

what is #5?

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-20 22:18 发表   what is #5?

 

第5号贴。

Another thing that has been puzzling me is that as the inflation pressure increases, treasure yield dropped. The negative correlation of TLT and SPY was prominent, and decoupled somewhat in the last two days. Does this mean that people worry more about the economy than inflation? I was tempting to long TLT around 90, other people think the same way?

 

 

jsl

Not much to say. Bond yield actually dropped a little. Given the inflation concern, it must have been the money rotated into bonds. 

 

The sell-off was well expected, even I got hedged. So I don't anticipate vix going much higher, and a small rally should come soon.

 

looks like people are losing confidence in financials.

 

plan: write calls on any rebound and write puts on short term lows,  reestablish positive beta in two month.

jsl

I am preparing to short USO, long DUG to hedge oil stock long positions.

 

back-off from my statement in 发呆's oil post, this round could make a low in the 90s. Equilibrium should be around 100.

 

selectively long short metal stocks.

 

continue to write options of  ETFs on both sides

 

 

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-22 23:24 发表  Equilibrium should be around 100

 

equilibrium between demand and supply? any data to support this?

jsl

looks like that the market behaved as everybody expected.  Let's wait until the market surprises you and me.

 

I have successfully hedged my hedges on Friday.

 

东方不败's JBLU and LUV are quite interesting.

 

Financials are getting into deeper trouble.

 

Can't see the leadership in the market.

 

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-23 02:25 发表   equilibrium between demand and supply? any data to support this?

I meant the price moving average.

 

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-5-27 22:48 编辑 ]

jsl

How would you figure this out?

 

1. Bond dropped. Mortgage rate is going higher.

2. oil dropped (oil inventory down, gasoline inventory down, distillate stockpile up)

3. gold dropped

4. stock market up

 

Do you think this setup is good or bad for the stock market?

Do you think this is technical or fundamental?

Do you think inflation is a major risk or recession is?

How would characterize today's stock market?

Are you willing to buy financials or material sector when you see an overall market opportunity?