SPX Notes 2009

bayliner1979 · 发表于 2009-5-7 04:41 PM

No change in the picture. Currently switch to a delta neutral position for OE close at around 900.

Today the option amount increases on top of yesterday's already huge amount.
This normally means a bullish result when at market bottom, but piggy to bearish sentiment if not at market bottom. 885 is likely to be visited soon and rebound back to 9xx.

今天开盘按计划减了长仓，加了短仓，break even point 910@OE。 Still expect OE close at around 900 (901 maybe).
Even with the mad bull running pace, whenever the wedge upperline is touched several times in a few days, a needed pullback to the wedge lowerline with at least 30 degree down is implemented.
Waiting for a pullback no lower than 875, the shorts will be closed at 890, and all shorts closed at 885.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-5-6 17:22

soulvirus · 发表于 2009-5-7 04:42 PM

thanks

新低手 · 发表于 2009-5-7 04:44 PM

1261# bayliner1979 cute cat

biscorpion · 发表于 2009-5-7 04:51 PM

Thanks.

lite1067 · 发表于 2009-5-7 04:52 PM

No change in the picture. Currently switch to a delta neutral position for OE close at around 900.

Today the option amount increases on top of yesterday's already huge amount.
This normally means ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-5-7 16:41

thanks, bay laoda.

from option data, i think spy shouldn't go above 90 on OE... what's your view, or you need a few more days to make sure?

formula · 发表于 2009-5-7 04:53 PM

Thanks!

cheesecake · 发表于 2009-5-7 08:04 PM

Thanks.

Persistance · 发表于 2009-5-7 08:36 PM

Thank you, Bay Laoda!

bagua2009 · 发表于 2009-5-7 10:14 PM

小咪 · 发表于 2009-5-8 05:53 AM

1261# bayliner1979

谢谢

whzdf · 发表于 2009-5-8 06:06 AM

bayliner1979 · 发表于 2009-5-8 03:58 PM

Still think May OE closes at about 900.

超大wedge已接近尾声，短期(OE这段时间)会转换为小上行通道，回调目标88x，回调前应该不会超过950。
可能会用一个月的时间转换为大上行通道，回调目标80x，和1月的底形成头肩底的两肩。

lite1067 · 发表于 2009-5-8 04:03 PM

Still think May OE closes at about 900.

超大wedge已接近尾声，短期(OE这段时间)会转换为小上行通道，回调目标88x，回调前应该不会超过950。
可能会用一个月的时间转换为大上行通道，回调目标80x，和1月的底形 ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-5-8 15:58

excellent analysis.. thanks!

flamesflames · 发表于 2009-5-8 04:04 PM

小声问一下，下周几是oeday，是周五吗？谢谢。

xiaoxiaozhang · 发表于 2009-5-8 04:18 PM

顶一下！多谢！

1272# bayliner1979

bagua2009 · 发表于 2009-5-8 05:10 PM

Persistance · 发表于 2009-5-8 07:55 PM

Thank you, Bay Laoda!!! An excellent option for MMs.

summer123 · 发表于 2009-5-8 08:06 PM

小声问一下，下周几是oeday，是周五吗？谢谢。
flamesflames 发表于 2009-5-8 17:04

5/15

lite1067 · 发表于 2009-5-11 07:52 PM

bay laoda?

bayliner1979 · 发表于 2009-5-11 08:01 PM

Unchanged opinion. SPY OE close likely 90.x, and 88.x will likely be visited before OE.

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[原创] SPX Notes 2009

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