SPX Notes 2009

benmao

penguin

bayliner1979

声明：关于牛熊：

有几个青蛙说俺最近做熊，这个是不懂TA的笨话。
不光俺了，几个懂TA的老大，像Cobra，CoolMax都被嘲笑。

TA rule No. X:
Healthy pullback is a prerequisite of a real bull market.
The smallest healthy pullback is 38.2% Fibo retrace, then 50% retrace, then 61.8% retrace.

All TAers who are actually bulls are expecting the minimal 38.2% retrace during the rally, but there was none.   Then it becomes very fishy.

Nevertheless, if this time SPX does drop to 805 and rebound, then it is still healthy and the target is at least 943.   Rule No. X claims healthiness as long as the valid pullback happens and holds.

I predicted the arrival of 943 in this rally a few weeks ago in this post.   Now I am still holding the opinion.   But the precondition is a healthy pullback to 805 and holds.  Therefore, fuck those frogs and ignore what they think, I am actually a healthy bull, as I am shorting SPY OTM puts.   :-)

farmoment

thanks

lake3peat

Hahaha, ding!

开小差

1203# bayliner1979 . thx. ding

bayliner1979

Negative analysis for both sides:

For bears, SPX 888.7 unlikely a mid-term top.   
For short-term & mid-term play, don't buy PUTs yet.  Other short positions with no time decay may be okay.
For long-term, inflation is coming and the market will react to it.  Inflation is in general a prop factor of DaPan.

For bulls, the upperline of the rising wedge is unlikely to be broken.  And the power of wedge is huge if it is released finally.   Some part of profits from long positions should be locked.
For short-term & mid-term play, GS seems to start to enter the distribution mode.  If it distributes more, then 89x area is very near the mid-term top.
For long-term, Buffet is not buying stocks (but bonds instead), this may imply that the overall stock value is still not cheap enough according to his standard.

开小差

1207# bayliner1979 thx. ding. where did u find those cute pics.

bagua2009

psoracle

Thanks.

Persistance

Thank you so much, Bay Laoda!!!

jasmin256

wolfdoctor

1207# bayliner1979


DING!!

bayliner1979

OE: SPY likely closes at 90 on May OE, 87.xx is also possible.  Unlikely to close below 85.
This morning got up and judged that today may close at High-of-the-day, add more shorts on May 84,85,86 puts.

Bad and good news for both sides:

For bears, unless tomorrow a huge drop cancels today's huge up, 907 is not even a short-term top.  SPX
s next target is weekly EMA(34) = 918.   But the good news is that afterwards there will be a pullback before OE to visit 900 area.

For bulls, today could be like 3/23.  In short term, a few piggy days ahead, and a pullback to fill this morning's gap is about to happen.  For mid-term and long-term, no matter how many higher highs so far, the upperline of the rising wedge still holds.  This results in extended negative divergence on 60-min chart.  Sooner or later the wedge will show its power.  But despite the negative divergence, the good news is that there is a higher close ahead.

Negative analysis for both sides:

For bears, SPX 888.7 unlikely a mid-term top.   
For short-term & mid-term play, don't buy PUTs yet.  Other short positions with no time decay may be okay.
For long-term, inflation is coming and the market will react to it.  Inflation is in general a prop factor of DaPan.

For bulls, the upperline of the rising wedge is unlikely to be broken.  And the power of wedge is huge if it is released finally.   Some part of profits from long positions should be locked.
For short-term & mid-term play, GS seems to start to enter the distribution mode.  If it distributes more, then 89x area is very near the mid-term top.
For long-term, Buffet is not buying stocks (but bonds instead), this may imply that the overall stock value is still not cheap enough according to his standard.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-5-3 12:50

buctusa

Thank you for sharing...............

We might not see SPX 6XX in 20 years.....................................

hyf

1214# bayliner1979


老大：问您个问题，您常说的影子有时是红线，有时是绿线，并且方向有上有下，不论红线还是绿线。像今天下午SPY就有两个向下的绿线，指向88.50，另一根红线则指向90.80。 90.80的今天就已经到了。您能给说说么？谢谢

colderdown

1216# hyf

P bar

xiaoxiaozhang

Thanks for sharing!

1214# bayliner1979

bayliner1979

phantom bars, i think, are caused by SPY traders (with lots of money to implement a huge up/down spike) who want to detect the market's vein.    The stop points are critical support/resistance lines, which you should pay attention to, but in a probabilistic system not all of them will be fulfilled in time.

1214# bayliner1979


老大：问您个问题，您常说的影子有时是红线，有时是绿线，并且方向有上有下，不论红线还是绿线。像今天下午SPY就有两个向下的绿线，指向88.50，另一根红线则指向90.80。 90.80的今天就已经 ...
hyf 发表于 2009-5-4 20:27

hyf

1219# bayliner1979


谢谢。