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楼主 |
发表于 2009-8-18 01:42 PM
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生死线的理由：
The above chart shows the last deflationary bear market, the decline from 1929 to 1932 when the DJIA lost 89 percent of its value. Observe the bear market rallies during the nearly three-year long stock debacle. Save for the first rise that occurred from November 1929 to April 1930, each time the Dow violated the support line drawn beneath the bear market rally, the next leg down was confirmed underway. I’ve listed the percentage declines that ensued, as well as how many weeks the market fell prior to the start of the next bear market rally. Some trendline breaks caught the start of the next leg early and some occurred a bit after. But this simple technical method was quite effective in identifying when the Dow was in the next phase of collapse.
This chart shows the current Dow. I’ve drawn the support line for the bear market rally by connecting the March low with the July low and extending it upward. Our view is that if the current leg lower is indeed wave B, it should ideally be contained by this up-sloping support line. A solid close beneath it, while not confirming Primary wave 3 (circle), would nonetheless be a solid sign that it was underway. This support line crosses 8564-8729 through the remainder of this month, depending upon when the index reaches it. We will certainly be keeping you up to date on the market’s machinations as prices approach the support line, if they fall that far. We are mainly concentrating on the Dow’s support line, as opposed to the S&P’s (though we are watching that too) because the Dow’s line has a more gentle slope, which makes it a more conservative measure for the market’s trend. This gives wave B just a bit more leeway. One final market quirk that many observers are discussing. The November 1929 to April 1930 rally unfolded over 22 weeks and rise 52 percent, as shown on the chart. The current bear market rally also unfolded over 22 weeks (March 9 to August 7) and carried the DJIA 46 percent higher, an exact time equality and a somewhat similar percentage gain to the 1929-1930 rise. This idiosyncrasy has been well noted on the web, too well in some respects, so it may prove to be of little forecasting value. Then again, a solid close beneath the support line from March and this particular market symmetry may become very interesting. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-8-18 12:54 PM
发表于 2009-8-18 12:55 PM
