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发表于 2009-5-22 10:41 AM
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本帖最后由 colderdown 于 2009-5-22 11:43 编辑
83# Cobra
From basic FA point of view, stagflation happend in relatively isolated system with limited labor pool(1970). currently, while the FED keep printing money and eventurally those money will flow to market, here comes the inflation. However, with the "help" of global economy and cheap labor( including high skill, tech rich workers or researchers) overseas, the labor cost won't catch up the inflation (reduced buying power). People has to pay more to meet the basic means. Basically, the demand will become even weaker. This will further diminish people's interest for equities, plus the high cost for raw material cut corportates' profits, here comes inflation depression. The good part is the debt will be gone too.
In general, every crisis is about supply and demand, no matter the demand is based on real productivity increase, new tech. or some artificial economy, as long as demand is strong, economy will boom. When demand is weak, here is the bear. |
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