2012-06-W4

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-27 12:45
Because the market reached 50% so in a speedy rate, I suspsect that the [C].II is a simple one-l ...

you mean it will start [C].III soon?

the 50% rebound is from 6/25 low? thanks

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-6-27 11:47
you mean it will start [C].III soon?

the 50% rebound is from 6/25 low? thanks

Yes, from 06/25's low.  The 50% fib area is at around 1335, and the day high so far is 1334.

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-6-27 11:47
you mean it will start [C].III soon?

the 50% rebound is from 6/25 low? thanks

If [C].II ends, [C].III will start (in according to the grey line scenario).

TNA

I just sold out half of small shares of TNA at 49.42.....

TNA

TNA 发表于 2012-6-27 12:54
I just sold out half of small shares of TNA at 49.42.....

Thanks !
The market looks like more room to go up...

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-27 12:54
If [C].II ends, [C].III will start (in according to the grey line scenario).

[C].III.a started? thanks

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-6-27 13:32
[C].III.a started? thanks

I don't know if wave [C].III.1 has started or not in the meantime.  If I have to make a guess, I would say yes.

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-27 13:37
I don't know if wave [C].III.1 has started or not in the meantime.  If I have to make a guess, I w ...

It comes to the idea about how to trade EW.  The third wave is the easiest wave to catch, while the first or the 5-th wave are harder.

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-27 14:37
I don't know if wave [C].III.1 has started or not in the meantime.  If I have to make a guess, I w ...

I would like to take the same guess...

Diffusion

每日一顶

时时是好时

大盘又要搞个强势收盘。雪大今天要卖SPY吗？

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-27 14:29
大盘又要搞个强势收盘。雪大今天要卖SPY吗？

http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... 8&fromuid=17450

偶昨天已經清掉了SPY  今天只要收在這附近偶就要以收盤價賣掉 EEM

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-27 15:33
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=175730&pid=1842188&fromuid=17450

偶 ...

噢，对对。我记错了，以为昨天卖掉的是EEM。

谢谢！！！

snowrider

1335 perfect touch of the 50% fib.

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-27 14:48
1335 perfect touch of the 50% fib.

然後就一個 sharp reversal

ethanlinear

大家发现没?雪大总是及时准确地回答每一个同学的问题.雪大是同学们的福分啊.http://hutong9.net/static/image/smiley/misc/11.gif

TNA

ethanlinear 发表于 2012-6-27 16:12
大家发现没?雪大总是及时准确地回答每一个同学的问题.雪大是同学们的福分啊.http://hutong9.net/static/ima ...

Thanks a lot, 雪大

时时是好时

ethanlinear 发表于 2012-6-27 16:12
大家发现没?雪大总是及时准确地回答每一个同学的问题.雪大是同学们的福分啊.http://hutong9.net/static/ima ...

是啊，很感激雪大的！！！

snowrider

We sold the remaining EEM (12.5%-06/15) at today's MOC price with a little bit loss (3%+) of the purchase price.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Long Term - Big troop dollar amount allocation:
- TLT 25% (10%-04/10, 15%-05/01)
- Cash 75%

Medium Term - Small troop stock holding:  None

The market's rebound moved up as expected.  Since the market moved up in a speedy way today and stopped at 50% fib area (1335), it could be a simple one-leg corrective wave.  The daily chart seems to show an Island Reversal bottom (Monday and Tuesday with today's gapping up).  However, today's volume is very thin, and it could cause the gap to get filled very quick.  If the gap is filled, the reversal fails and could cause a big decline after that.  Therefore, the key observation is whether today's gap will be filled within next two days.

Wave count (based on the grey line scenario):
06/04/2012's low = [A]
06/19/2012's high = [B]
06/25/2012's low = [C].I
06/27/2012's high = [C].II ???
Now we are either at the end of [C].II (simply wave) or [C].II.a (abc wave)
(Note that this scenario will become invalid if the market shows a 5-wave up movement.)

lilitulip