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发表于 2009-6-11 08:23 PM
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Bloomberg: natural is the buying opportunity of a lifetime
Natural Gas Gains More Than 6% as Supply Rise Misses Estimates
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By Reg Curren
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures rose more than 6 percent in New York, the biggest gain since June 1, after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles increased less than analysts predicted.
Supplies advanced 106 billion cubic feet in the week ended June 5 to 2.443 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said. Analysts had forecast an increase of 110 billion. A report of rising retail sales in the U.S. may signal the economy is rebounding from the worst recession in five decades. Factories and manufacturers account for about 29 percent of gas demand.
“This is probably the buying opportunity of a lifetime for natural gas,” said Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management LLC in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire. “If you’re an end user and you want to lock in prices, or you want to be a speculator, natural gas has the best risk-reward from these levels.”
Natural gas for July delivery rose 22.5 cents, or 6.1 percent, to settle at $3.933 per million British thermal units at 3:06 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since June 2. The futures fell yesterday on concern a stockpile surplus would increase.
Gas has declined 30 percent this year, making it the worst performer in the S&P GSCI Commodity index this year.
The five-year average stockpile gain for the week is 91 billion cubic feet, according to Energy Department data.
Gas will probably rise to about $5 per million Btu by the end of the month, with supplies starting to tighten on reduced drilling, just as hot weather and a stabilizing economy help lift demand, said Jarvis.
Oil Rally
Natural gas gained along with crude oil and stock markets. Oil for July delivery rose to the highest in more than seven months after the International Energy Agency raised its demand forecast for the first time since August.
Crude rose $1.35, or 1.9 percent, to settle at $72.68 a barrel in New York, the highest close since Sept. 20.
“It’s not going to take much for gas to turn on a dime to the upside,” said Tom Orr, director of research at Weeden & Co., a brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. “The sentiment has changed and people are starting to look into 2010. There are little glimmers of light for everything else that is rubbing off on gas.”
Stocks advanced on a drop in Treasury yields, the Commerce Department’s retail-sales report and a Labor Department report showing that the fewest Americans since January filed claims for unemployment benefits last week. The Standard & Poor’s index of 500 stocks rose to a seven-month high, gaining 0.6 percent to 944.89.
“The moves in crude and all of these other commodities is too powerful,” Orr said. “The economic data is looking a little better and the stock market is strong. The risk-reward on gas is tilting more in favor of being long than short.”
Orr said he expects prices to move to $4.50 per million Btu within a week.
High Storage
The Federal Reserve said yesterday the recession may be easing in almost half of its regions. A recovery in the U.S. economy would help restore demand for natural gas from power generators and factories, which combined account for 58 percent of consumption.
Reduced exploration in the U.S. will cut natural-gas production this year by 1.1 percent, the Energy Department said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on June 9.
“When storage is this high, being 4 billion off the expectation isn’t going to be a driver,” Jarvis said. “It’s more the outside markets.”
The number of rigs exploring for and producing gas has fallen 56 percent since September, when it peaked at 1,606. A report by Baker Hughes Inc. on June 5 showed that gas rigs declined by three to 700, the lowest since Nov. 29, 2002.
Inventory gains have topped the five-year average every week since early April, department data show.
Above-normal levels of supplies and reduced demand from factories and power plants in the U.S. combined to push natural gas to its lowest price in more than six years in recent weeks. Gas has declined 71 percent since July 2, when it reached a 2008 high of $13.694 per million Btu.
To contact the reporters on this story: Reg Curren in Calgary at rcurren@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 11, 2009 17:38 EDT |
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发表于 2009-6-11 08:40 PM
发表于 2009-8-23 05:43 AM
