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I don't want to harp too much on one indicator, but I do rely quite heavily on the TICK indicator during the trading day. It has many uses as a gauge of sentiment, and its effectiveness has not slid in the 10 years I've been using it. See Dr. Brett's blog for some occasional real-time examples.
We've seen some really noteworthy readings in the TICK over the past day and a half. I touched on it yesterday, and the upside skew is continuing today. We've now gone 23 consecutive half hours without one TICK reading below -600 (according to my quote vendor, yours may be different).
A reading of -600 is fairly useless when looking at history, since the volatility of the TICK has increased over the years. So I normalized it by comparing the current reading to its standard deviation over the past three months. In that sense, we've gone 23 half hours without a low reading more than 1.5 standard deviations below the 3-month average.
This has been matched or exceeded only three other times since 2003. None of them were good times to expect the upside thrust to continue for the short-term. I suspect the same is going to hold true here - even if we do happen to get a push higher, I'd be surprised if it was sustained.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-5-19 01:18 PM
