2012-08-W1

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-8 11:29 AM
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for SPY, there are at least 2 pairs of 3X ETF (UPRO/SPXU, SPXS/SPXL). To av ...

Thanks a lot for this info!  I really don't want to spent too much time on trading stock in my current way.  I'll do the change this weekend.

snowrider

I liquidated all my TLT just now.

bucks

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but it really doesn't matter in most cases since the disallowed loss is added to the basis of the replacement stock.

" The basis adjustment is important as it preserves the benefit of the disallowed loss. You'll receive that benefit on a future sale of the replacement stock" (from Wiki)

"Because of this basis adjustment, the wash sale rule usually does not have a significant impact. In most cases, it simply means you'll get the same tax benefit at a later time. If you receive the benefit later in the same year, the wash sale may have no effect at all on your taxes"

The tax software or other tools could automatically take all those into account.

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-8 12:27 PM
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but it really doesn't matter in most cases since the disallowed loss is added ...

Thanks for the information!  I have encountered the Wash Sale problem long time ago when I first started trading U.S. stock.  I did not know there was such a rule until I was told that some loss was not able to be counted.  Anyway, I'll follow your idea to have some similar ETFs targeting on the same index so that I can have replacement once a stock is out from a loss.

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-8 12:14 PM
I liquidated all my TLT just now.

It's like earning me some bank interest income:  4.8% profit of the average cost (119.75).
As I said before that TLT is not good for trading, but it is a place that we can park our money when there is no other stock to buy.

snowrider

看樣子偶又得回到 3X ETFs 了!  為什麼呢?  因為 1X 的實在是太像鍋牛了!  錢沒賺到 人就累壞了!  

EDC (偶這隻吃過大虧 ... 就不選它了)
FAS
TNA
TQQQ
UPRO

EDZ (不選它了)
FAZ
TZA
SQQQ
SPXU

加上 bucks 建議的 SPXS/SPXL ... 還有沒有其它的呢?

snowrider

I am going to buy IWM with the fund of 20% dollar allocation in my Big Troop at MOC price.

bucks

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ERX/ERY for XLE play?

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-8 03:27 PM
I am going to buy IWM with the fund of 20% dollar allocation in my Big Troop at MOC price.

不要等dip了? 1380不会去了吗 ?

bucks

GDX and XME are ETF with quick and big move, despite being only 1X

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-8 02:31 PM
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ERX/ERY for XLE play?

Good idea!

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-8-8 02:31 PM
不要等dip了? 1380不会去了吗 ?

偶是強烈看多所以偶先進點 (20%而已) ... 回檔會再加

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-8 02:33 PM
GDX and XME are ETF with quick and big move, despite being only 1X

Good idea!  I did not even know nor notice that!  I am so glad that I am here learning stock trading from you guys!

snowrider

We liquidated TLT today with trivial profit.  We also bought IWM today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:
- IWM 20% (20%-08/08)
- SPY 45% (10%-07/05, 15%-07/06, 10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- Cash 35%

SAC Troop:
- EWS 15% (10%-07/30, 5%-07/31)
- XLF 22% (10%-07/30, 12%-07/31)
- QQQ 24% (24%-08/02)
- VNQ 25% (25%-08/02)
- Cash 14%

The market had a low open but was not able to push down because of last gap support (08/06-07).  Now it comes to a crossroad:  1. If today's low completed wave-2 (0.236), a super surge will occur tomorrow and bring the market to 1447; or 2. If today's low was just wave-2._a, we will see a dip tomorrow to complete the whole wave-2 at 1380 (0.5) or 1375 (0.618).  Either scenario indicates a big bullish movement is coming soon, so our strategy is buying dips.

Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
07/03's high = [A]
07/24's low = [B]
07/30's high = [C].I
08/02's low = [C].II
08/07's high = [C].III.1
Today's low = [C].III.2._a
Today's high = [C].III.2._b  (The pullback will complete as [C].III.2._c at around tomorrow noon.)
We are in the middle of a big wave [C] to 1426 (or even to 1524 in the strongest scenario).

bucks

TNA

{:8_494:}{:8_494:}{:8_494:}

snowrider

bucks 发表于 2012-8-8 02:33 PM
GDX and XME are ETF with quick and big move, despite being only 1X

請問 NUGT 的 underlying security 是 GDX 嗎?

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-8-8 09:57 PM
請問 NUGT 的 underlying security 是 GDX 嗎?

据我所知，是这样的。。。

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-8-8 09:09 PM
据我所知，是这样的。。。

謝!  有誰知道如果做 UCO 和 SCO 會不會收到 K-1 ?  (如果會...偶就不要做)

snowrider

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急忙中忘了修訂 ... 因為這盤勢是強漲勢 ... 所以不應該再期待 1375 (0.618) 了!  熊方如果幸運可逃脫的話  可能只會到 1387 (0.382) 最多只會到 1380 (0.5) ... 所以以下應該修訂:
"If today's low was just wave-2._a, we will see a dip tomorrow to complete the whole wave-2 at 1380 (0.5) or 1375 (0.618)."
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"If today's low was just wave-2._a, we will see a dip tomorrow to complete the whole wave-2 at 1387 (0.382) or 1380 (0.5)."