NYQ Thanks. I mean, if index has a little bit more science than individual stocks?
pretty much the same. what do you expect to have when you put 1000 man together and take an average? are you going to get a cold hard machine? no, you get an average joe. :) we observed a lot of such things in politics. There was Nazi in German. there was Culture Revolution in China.
Abacus:" 就是说:股市的变化可能会超出你的想象(你的预计),小概率事件通常是不可避免的。既然是这样,就减少预测,想象。做右边操作。"--------It makes a whole lot of sense.
Actrually, the predictions part mainly is a way to force me to think about the market, more a confidence building process than actrually betting big based on predictions.