Chan study on spy (30 min bi)

littletiger

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http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... p;page=1#pid1625188

littletiger

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more high, but close to negative divergency.

no short until it breaks the support $118.3-119.

littletiger

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the morning high forms a negative divergency

later on, it was forming a zone: 119.8-119.4

the uptrend is completed.

1. fluctuation, zone upgrade  
2. down.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-11 22:32
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the morning high forms a negative divergency

morning gap up above the zone, it is a continuous trend breaking the zone.

now, another divergency. it is 30min bi up trend. so on 5min, it forms a 30min down bi;
but this down bi needs to break $120 to make the up trend completed.

looking at 120 as support.



on longer time frame (daily) SPY is well above the downtrend line. expect to re-test it 115-116 and then go up again.
IWM/SPY breaks it downtrend.

so it is better to long instead of short.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-12 23:00
morning gap up above the zone, it is a continuous trend breaking the zone.

now, another diver ...

gap down below 120 in the afternoon and rally up above 120 in the afternoon.

check the 2nd down leg for positive divergency to buy in.

littletiger

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another gap up today;
1. zone upgraded to 30min, and today 's really the c of the a-B (30min bin zone 119-120) - c (finish around ER week?).  this is what Chan's dang xia analysis

5-30min view:




mid-term speculation:


2. since "a" is strong, a divergency will form and cause a larger drop  (mid - late of OCT?)   (30min xian duan drop, forming 30min
xian duan zone)
3. in Nov., there will another rally into early Dec.



=> support vs. resistance
checking point 119-120

and 126 target.

=> better long than short (above 119-120)

littletiger

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1. still above 120-119.

2. IWM is showing a 1min down trend. while SPY is more like 1min corrections.

both show quite some positive divergency;

these above obs leads me to believe a rebounce on Tues. unless big gap down below 119 which is vvery unlikely and is also a buying opportunity for gap fill. and if such gap-down happens, it will change this down move into bigger one.

conclusion:
a. small gap up, fill gap; then up a little more (45%)
b. small gap down, fill gap and then zheng dang. (45%)
c. big gap down (10%)

check 121 for resistance
and 119-120 for support.

littletiger

littletiger 发表于 2011-10-17 22:19
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1. still above 120-119.

forming a 5min bi zone (1min zone). a little bit more up room.

littletiger

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support 119-120
resistance 122-122.6

any decisive breakout of 122 or breakdown 120 will be a sign of trend; otherwise, more zhen dang.

littletiger

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still in the range.

in the zone, the possible outcomes are 1. continue in the zone 2. up 3. down.

today,
Xin gives signal of going up in the next movement based on price pattern and small trader's position

http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... page%3D1&page=2


and csw2002 based on norman fosback's logic indicator and fund manager's position

http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... &extra=page%3D1

Study 1:

A recent article by Mark Hulbert on Norman Fosback’s High-Low Logic indicator Buy when Avg <0.5%, Exit when Avg >1.0%
10/06/11 Buy SPX 1164.97… Exit ???

Study 2:

Check out the data available from http://www.naaim.org/naaimadsenttrend.aspx?results=download
This is the survey result of National Association of Active Investment Managers compiled on a weekly basis

littletiger

out of range by gap up. this is decisive breakout of zone.
IWM: 5min,


it is 5min trend up. two zone.Given strong c of a-B-c-C-........ current movemnt,
the next up "d" is very likely to form some negative divergency.


conclusion,

continue rally in early monday morning and then corrections above $123 for 1-2 days
.

littletiger

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SPY, 5min trending up ,today formed a 3rd 5min bi zone (1min duan zone). This  3rd zone may be expanding (upgrading) into a larger  5min xian duan zone. (green box)



very likely:  fluctuation around 125; or breakup or down around this zone.

breakup means topping of this 5min up trend.



overall, it almost reaches the 10/14 forecasting of SPY = $126 target.

littletiger

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SPY 5min:

break down; morning rally was 3rd sell point. there is a new 5min bi zone around $123.6-124.5.

check the supporting line (black one draw yesterday) and life line (the red line today)






next move:
some rally into $123.6 and more drop. and question is wether future drop is strong or not.

littletiger

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review on 10/25 predicts more drop.

on 10/26, a quick shallow dip formed a POSITIVE divergency.
and since then, a rally till friday.

the 10/24-10/26 drop expands the previous zone and it upgrades into 30min duan zone.



price movement before and after 30min zone has no divergency yet. expect more rally after some shallow dip.

littletiger

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10/30-11/1 formed a 30min DOWN bi; may have 2nd down bi because this bi gets into the 30min xian duan zone.
11/2 starts another 30min up bi.

this up bi shows a bit 5min divergency.
expect a drop then go up to form final divergency.

cautious on up movement

MFTHT

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太牛了。漂亮。

MFTHT

谢谢小老虎。刚刚注意到这个帖子。收藏，等周末有时间再仔细拜读。

littletiger

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  xie le.
once again. fyi, green line is 30min bi. and blue line is 5min bi.

littletiger

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11/4 drops below $124.4 into previous 5min zone. however, no follow-up.
therefore, neither bear or bull show their power.



overall, this rally from 11/1 is weak. in terms of chan, 2 overlapping 5min bi zones indicate this is Pan Zhen;


expect 2nd 30min drop aheads unless strong rally from now on.

littletiger

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morning dips formed a clear positive divergency. the rally is trong and forms only 1 5min UP bi.


expects another 5min up bi.   more up ahead.