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发表于 2011-5-17 09:36 AM
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本帖最后由 yaobooyao 于 2011-5-17 10:01 编辑
X!nG 发表于 2011-5-17 09:28 
老妖 看到你现在是坚定的熊
Yes, for the moment.
Actually I didn't short ofen in the past, always a dip buyer and play the long side only as XiaoSan.
But my feeling is that the market has over dued a correction for over 18mth, statistically this mid of 2011 is a good timing to make that correction done and prepare the market for the 2nd of 2011 and Q1 2012. Otherwise, from valuation perspective, we will hit the ceiling and there will be least execuse to keep buying the market higher from here.
My trading plan is simple - hold my SDS , and take profit when SPX hits 1300. After that, don't know.
I've moved all my mutual funds from stocks to money market in April's high, and after that this is always my view of market.
One thing is suspecious to me is like this - for example, FCX as a copper miner, now it's trailing PE is around 9, forward PE is around 7. Why people won't buy it and push PE higher if they believe this is a deep in the value play? (historical average PE is around 10~12) . Are they expecting the copper futures price to drop so that the PE will be adjusted to average by a lower future earning expectation (instead of a higher stock price)?
I have to admit that I am worrying about AUD so much, this snake will bite me if my analysis and bearish bet is wrong. But I trust my bet at 51% positive.
XING, you don't have to get angry with the posts, just don't dive so dip into it. Or maybe forget it. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-5-17 09:31 AM
